• Global stocks this morning are higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.17% and Mar S&Ps up +1.50 points at a 5-1/2 month high. The dollar index fell to a 2-week low and most commodities rose with gold at a 1-month high and copper at a 3-3/4 month high after French borrowing costs dropped at an auction and Spain sold more bonds than its planned target. Spain sold 6.61 billion euros of bonds, compared with a maximum target for the sale of 4.5 billion euros, while French 2-year note yields fell to 1.05% from 1.58% at a similar auction on Oct, which boosts optimism the European sovereign debt crisis is being contained. Another positive for stocks is the report from people with knowledge of the matter that China is letting its larger banks boost lending and is weighing a plan to relax capital requirements.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.04%, China +1.91%, Australia -0.07%, South Korea +1.39%, India +1.17%. Asian stocks rose amid signs China will relax credit controls and boost lending. According to 2 people at state banks who have knowledge of the matter, the PBOC will let China’s largest banks increase new loans by a maximum of 5% from a year earlier, while the banking regulator will delay implementing the most stringent capital adequacy ratios and may lower risk weightings for loans to small businessmen and companies. Technology stocks in Asia rose after ASML Holding NV, Europe’s biggest semiconductor-equipment maker, forecast higher Q1 orders, and after sales at U.S. chipmaker Linear Technology beat analysts’ projections.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.50 points at a fresh 5-1/2 month high. The US stock market on Wednesday moved higher throughout the day and settled near its high after the IMF’s proposal to increase its lending capacity by $500 billion reduced European debt concerns while homebuilders surged after the Jan NAHB housing index climbed to a 4-1/2 year high: Dow Jones +0.78%, S&P 500 +1.11%, Nasdaq Composite +1.53%. The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq all posted 5-1/2 month highs. Bullish factors included (1) reduced European debt concerns after the IMF proposed a $500 billion expansion of its lending resources to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis and after a Greek finance official said his government could forge an agreement on a voluntary debt swap with creditors by the end of this week, (2) a rally in homebuilders after the Jan HAHB housing market index rose more than expected to its best level in 4-1/2 y ears (+4 to 25 versus expectations of +1 to 22), and (3) strength in technology stocks after semiconductor companies advanced when Linear Technology and Taiwan Semiconductor reported better-than-expected sales forecasts.
• Bearish factors on Wednesday included (1) concerns over a global economic slowdown after the World Bank cut its 2012 global growth forecast to +2.5% from a June estimate of +3.6% and Germany’s Economy Ministry cut its 2012 German GDP forecast to +0.7% from an Oct forecast of +1.0% and (2) Dec U.S. industrial production which rose +0.4%, weaker than expectations of +0.5%, while Nov industrial production was revised lower to -0.3% from the originally reported -0.2%.
• Ebay (EBAY) climbed 3.4% in European trading after the company reported Q4 revenue rose 35% to $3.38 billion, better than analysts’ estimates of $3.32 billion.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks. T-note prices on Wednesday moved lower after Dec core producer prices unexpectedly increased and after safe-haven demand for Treasuries fell as the stock market rallied: TYH2 -10.5, FVH2 -3.7, EDM2 -2.5. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec core PPI prices (+0.3% m/m and a 2-1/2 year high of +3.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Jan NAHB housing market index which climbed to its best level in 4-1/2 years (+4 to 25 versus expectations of +1 to 22), and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the IMF’s proposal to boost its lending capacity by $500 billion reduced European debt concerns and lifted stocks. Bullish factors included (1) concern over a global economic slowdown after the World Bank cut its 2012 global growth forecast to +2.5% from a June estimate of +3.6% and Germany’s Economy Ministry cut its 2012 German GDP forecast to +0.7% from an Oct forecast of +1.0%, (2) solid foreign demand for U.S. government debt after the Nov long-term TIC flows showed foreign holdings of Treasuries rose +1.7% to a record $4.75 trillion, and (3) Dec U.S. industrial production which rose +0.4%, weaker than expectations of +0.5%, while Nov was revised lower to -0.3% from the originally reported -0.2%.
• The dollar index this morning is lower and trading at a 2-week low with the dollar/yen +0.03 yen and the euro/dollar +0.30 cents. The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and finished lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the IMF proposed boosting its lending capacity by $500 billion: Dollar Index -0.573, USDJPY -0.005, EURUSD +0.01281. Bearish factors included (1) the proposal by the IMF to expand its lending resources by $500 billion to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis, which is euro supportive, (2) reduced demand for dollars after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, fell to 78 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, a 5-1/4 month low, and (3) fuel for short-covering in the euro after data from the CFTC showed that traders had increased their short euro positions to a record 155,195 contracts in the week ended Jan 10. Bullish factors incl uded (1) increased safe-haven demand on global economic concerns after the World Bank cut its 2012 global growth forecast to +2.5% from a June estimate of +3.6% and Germany’s Economy Ministry cut its 2012 German GDP forecast to +0.7% from an Oct forecast of +1.0%, (2) the Nov long-term TIC flows which increased by +$59.8 billion, bigger than expectations of +$40.0 billion and a sign of strong foreign demand for dollar assets, and (3) signs of stronger U.S. economic confidence after the Jan NAHB housing market index rose more than expected to its highest in 4-1/2 years.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +$1.13 a barrel and Feb gasoline is -0.37 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday settled mixed as crude oil fell after the Obama administration said it will reject the Keystone XL pipeline and gasoline surged to a 3-month high after Hovensa LLC said it will close a refinery in the Virgin Islands that supplies gasoline to the U.S. East Coast: CLG12 -$0.12, RBG12 +5.41. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) strength in gasoline on concern gasoline supplies to the U.S. East Coast may be reduced after Hovensa LLC said it will shut its 350,000 barrel-a-day St. Croix refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands because of mounting losses and weak demand. Bearish factors included (1) the action by the Obama administration to reject the implementation of TransCanada’s Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the U.S Gulf coast, which may increase crude inventories in Cushing, OK, the hub for WTI supplies and delivery point for NYMEX futures contracts, (2) the action by the IEA to cut its 2012 global crude oil demand forecast to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, -200,000 bbl less than a previous estimate saying “the risks are to the downside for the global economy and oil demand growth,” and (3) the outlook for weekly DOE crude inventories to climb for a fourth week when the DOE reports its weekly inventory data on Thursday. Expectations for Thursday’s weekly DOE inventories (delayed 1 day due to the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday) are for crude supplies to grow by +3.0 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to climb by +2.35 million bbl, distillate inventories to rise +1.38 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to drop -0.5 to 85.1%.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): MSFT-Microsoft (BEST earnings consensus $0.76), IBM-International Business Machines (4.62), GOOG-Google (10.50), INTC-Intel (0.62), BAC-Bank of America (0.14), AXP-American Express (0.97), UNH-UnitedHealth Group (1.04), UNP-Union Pacific (1.82), FCX-Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (0.61), BLK-BlackRock (2.99), MS-Morgan Stanley (-0.57), JCI-Johnson Controls (0.62), COF-Capital One Financial (1.54), BBT-BB&T (0.53), ISRG-Intitive Surgical (3.36).

Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 1/19/12

United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -15,000 to 384,000, previous +24,000 to 399,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -38,000 to 3.590 million, previous +19,000 to 3.628 million.
0830 ET Dec CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, Nov unchanged m/m and +3.4% y/y. Dec CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
0830 ET Dec housing starts expected -0.7% to 680,000, Nov +9.3% to 685,000. Dec building permits expected no change at 680,000, Nov +5.6% at 680,000.
1000 ET Jan Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +3.5 to 10.3, Dec +3.7 to 6.8.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 2-year T-notes (previous $35 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Jan 24-26.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $15 billion 10-year TIPS.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Japan
0030 ET Dec Japan nationwide department store sales, Nov -1.9% y/y.
2330 ET Nov Japan all industry activity index expected -0.9% m/m, Oct +0.8% m/m.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET ECB publishes its monthly report for Jan.
0700 ET ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a press conference in Abu Dhabi.
1200 ET ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speaks at an event in Berlin.
Canada
0830 ET Nov Canada manufacturing sales expected +0.8% m/m, Oct -0.8% m/m.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1303.70 1.50 0.12% 7:03:38 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12518 14 0.11% 7:00:41 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2440.25 4.25 0.17% 7:00:00 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5718.58 16.21 0.28% 7:00:05 AM
German Dax Index 6365.65 11.08 0.17% 7:00:07 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3291.63 26.70 0.82% 7:00:00 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8640 89 1.04% 1:28:01 AM
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19943 256 1.30% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2468 46 1.91% 2:01:24 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7234 0 0.00% 1/18/2012
Australian S&P 200 4214.77 -3.11 -0.07% 12:19:59 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2811.2 15.8 0.57% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 251.27 3.45 1.39% 4:05:17 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 16644 192.27 1.17% 7:15:05 AM
Karachi KSE-100 11516 -32 -0.28% 6:55:04 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 131.100 0.015 0.04% 7:04:51 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 101.010 0.040 0.12% 7:15:00 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.884 -0.014 -0.74% 7:15:00 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.170 0.010 0.02% 7:04:51 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.125 0.015 0.05% 7:15:02 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.794 -0.010 -1.21% 7:15:02 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 144.07 0.010 0.02% 7:05:08 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 103.235 0.130 0.39% 7:15:06 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 2.936 -0.020 -0.68% 7:15:06 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.480 -0.015 -0.02% 7:03:27 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.445 -0.020 -0.02% 7:03:26 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.56 0.01 0.01% 1:02:00 AM
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/19/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 139.68 -0.19 -0.14% 7:00:06 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 99.04 0.00 0.00% 1/18/2012
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 117.09 -0.17 -0.14% 7:00:04 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 98.95 0.00 0.00% 6:59:19 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 80.2870 -0.1960 -0.24% 7:05:00 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.8500 0.0300 0.04% 7:15:08 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2893 0.0030 0.23% 7:15:08 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9373 -0.0022 -0.23% 7:15:08 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5438 0.0000 0.00% 7:15:08 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0094 -0.0018 -0.18% 7:15:08 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3021 -0.0012 -0.09% 7:05:08 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2909 0.0070 0.55% 7:05:08 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0691 0.0055 0.52% 7:04:50 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5434 0.0017 0.11% 7:05:08 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9899 0.0034 0.34% 7:05:04 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1663.9 4.0 0.24% 7:05:00 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 30.750 0.207 0.68% 7:05:06 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 380.9 5.6 1.49% 7:04:58 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 101.72 1.13 1.12% 7:05:08 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 282.17 -0.37 -0.13% 6:57:43 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 303.01 1.67 0.55% 7:03:38 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.441 -0.031 -1.25% 7:04:42 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 597.75 4.25 0.72% 7:03:48 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1192.50 9.00 0.76% 7:04:00 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 596.25 4.00 0.68% 7:02:33 AM

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.06% and Mar S&Ps up +2.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries are lower and most commodities rose after the IMF proposed a $500 billion expansion of its lending resources to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis. The IMF is pushing China, Brazil, Russia, India, Japan and oil exporting nations to be the top contributors to the bailout fund that may be initiated at the Feb 25-26 meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Mexico City. The IMF currently has $385 billion available for lending and wants to boost that amount to $885 billion. A positive for European bank stocks was the decline in the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, to 78 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, a 5-1/4 month low. Limiting gains in stocks and the euro was the action by Germany’s Economy Ministry to c ut its 2012 German GDP forecast to +0.7%, down from an Oct forecast of +1.0% as the debt crisis dampens the outlook for sustaining exports. The World Bank also cut its growth estimates as they reduced their 2012 global growth forecast to +2.5% from a June estimate of +3.6%, saying a recession in the Euro-Zone threatens to exacerbate a slowdown in emerging markets.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +0.99%, China -1.56%, Australia +0.05%, South Korea unchnaged, India -0.09%. Asian stocks found support after German investor confidence rose to a 6-month high, which suggests concern over the European debt crisis is receding. Energy and raw-material producers gained as most commodities rallied, while Japanese makers of factory equipment rose after Japan’s Machine Tool Builders’ Association said that Japan Dec orders for machine tools climbed +17.4% y/y, a number Credit Suisse AG said was “unexpectedly firm.” Chinese stocks closed lower as property developers slid on concern a property-market slowdown will crimp demand for building materials and consumer goods. China’s 7-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the financial system, jumped 58 bp to 7.72%, the highest in 6-3/4 months as banks hoard cash in the run up to the Lunar New Year holiday next week.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.40 points. The US stock market on Monday settled higher on speculation a slowdown in Chinese growth will prompt its government to ease monetary policy, while European debt concerns eased after German business sentiment surged and Spanish and Greek borrowing costs declined: Dow Jones +0.48%, S&P 500 +0.36%, Nasdaq Composite +0.64%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 5-1/2 month highs and the Nasdaq climbed to a 2-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) speculation that China will avoid a hard landing after Q4 China GDP expanded at a +8.9% y/y pace, although stronger than expectations of +8.7% y/y, was the slowest pace of growth in 2-1/2 years and also bolstered speculation the Chinese government will ease monetary policy, (2) reduced European debt concerns after the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged to its best level in 6-months (+32.8 to -21.6) and as borrowing costs for Spain and Greece decli ned when their yields fell at auctions of government debt, and (3) the stronger-than-expected Jan Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 9-months (+5.3 to 13.5 versus expectations of +1.0 to 10.5).
• Bearish factors on Monday included (1) the action by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the European Financial Stability Facility to AA+ from AAA, which may reduce the lending capacity of the bailout fund, (2) concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros, and (3) weakness in cruise-line companies after Barclays Capital said the action by Carnival’s Costa Concordia to run aground off the coast of Italy will hurt the cruise industry as the incident happened at the start of the industry’s peak booking season.
• Yahoo! (YHOO) climbed 4.1% in pre-market trading after co-founder Jerry Yang stepped down, which fueled speculation that the company will sell its Asian assets valued at more than $10 billion.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3 ticks. T-note prices on Tuesday settled slightly higher as European debt concerns and Fed buying of long-term Treasuries offset reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a 5-1/2 month high: TYH2 +1.5, FVH2 +0.7, EDM2 +1.0. Bullish factors included (1) the action by the Fed to purchase $2.75 billion of Treasuries maturing between 2036 and 2041 as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of shorter-maturity Treasuries in its holdings with longer-term debt to keep long-term rates low and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros. Bearish factors included (1) decreased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stocks rallied when Q4 China GDP expanded at a +8.9% y/y pace, stronger than expectations of +8.7% y/y which reduced concerns of a hard-landing for China, (2) reduced European debt concerns after the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged to its best level in 6-months and as borrowing costs for Spain and Greece declined when their yields fell at auctions of government debt, and (3) the stronger-than-expected Jan Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 9-months (+5.3 to 13.5 versus expectations of +1.0 to 10.5).
• The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen unchanged and the euro/dollar +0.49 cents. The dollar index on Tuesday settled lower after the euro gained when Jan German business sentiment surged and as Spanish and Greek borrowing costs declined: Dollar Index +0.745, USDJPY +0.204, EURUSD -0.01352. Bearish factors included (1) the surge in the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment to its best level in 6 months, (2) the decline in the borrowing costs of Spain and Greece when yields fell at auctions of government debt, which reduces concern that the indebted European countries will be able to finance their debts, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rallied to a 5-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar when the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 bill ion euros, (2) the action by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the European Financial Stability Facility to AA+ from AAA, which may reduce the lending capacity of the bailout fund, and (3) concern about the European banking system as lenders continue to refrain from lending due to counter-party risk after Euro-Zone banks parked 501.9 billion euros in overnight funds at the ECB on Monday, the most since the euro was introduced in 1999.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +45 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is +0.25 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled sharply higher as the dollar weakened, Jan German investor confidence surged and as France pushed for faster enforcement of the EU’s proposed ban on oil imports from Iran: CLG12 +$2.01, RBG12 +3.71. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) the greater-than-expected increase in the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment to its best level in 6 months, which reduces concern the European debt crisis will hinder economic growth and energy demand, (3) comments from 2 unnamed French officials who said that France wants the embargo on Iranian crude to be delayed by no more than 3 months rather than the 6-month delay other EU members are seeking, (4) comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi who said that Saudi Arabia aims to stabilize the average crude price worldwide at $100 a barrel in 2012, and (5) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 5-1/2 month high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and fuel demand. Bearish factors included (1) the decline in Q4 China GDP to +8.9% y/y, the weakest pace of growth in 2-1/2 years and signals reduced fuel demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer, (2) concern the European debt crisis may worsen after the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said that Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros, and (3) carry-over weakness from a fall in natural gas prices to a 10-year nearest-futures low as a milder-than-normal U.S. winter reduces heating demand.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): USB-US Bancorp (BEST earnings consensus $0.63), GS-Goldman Sachs Group (1.23), EBAY-Ebay (0.57), PNC-PNC Financial Services (1.49), KMP-Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (0.61), KMI-Kinder Morgan Inc. (0.29), BK-Bank of New York Mellon (0.53), STT-State Street Corp. (0.94), SCHW-Charles Schwab (0.13), FAST-Fastenal (0.29), NTRS-Northern Trust (0.68), XLNX-Xilinx (0.38), FFIV-F5 Networks (1.01), SLM-SLM Corp. (0.49), CLC-CLARCOR (0.67).

Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 1/18/12

United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.5% with purchase mortgage sub-index +8.1% and refinancing sub-index +3.3%.
0745 ET ICSC (Int’l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET Dec PPI expected +0.1% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Nov +0.3% m/m and +5.7% y/y. Dec PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET Nov net long-term TIC flows expected +$40.0 billion, Oct +$4.8 billion.
0915 ET Dec industrial production expected +0.5%, Nov -0.2%. Dec capacity utilization expected +0.3 to 78.1%, Nov 0.2 to 77.8%.
0930 ET Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies before the Financial Services Committee on the proposed Volcker Rule and its impact on the economy.
1000 ET Jan NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 22, Dec +2 to 21.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Dec U.K. jobless claims change expected +7,000, Nov +3,000. Dec claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Nov 5.0%.
0430 ET Nov U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, Oct +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET Nov U.K. weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.9% 3-mo/year-over-year, Oct +1.8% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET Nov U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected 8.3% 3-months, Oct 8.3% 3-months.
1901 ET Dec U.K. nationwide consumer confidence expected -2 to 38, Nov +4 to 40.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Nov Euro-Zone construction output, Oct -1.4% m/m and -2.8% y/y.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1291.70 2.40 0.19% 7:13:04 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12436 16 0.13% 7:11:49 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2434.95 -1.51 -0.06% 7:08:15 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5699.71 5.76 0.10% 7:08:20 AM
German Dax Index 6359.30 26.37 0.42% 7:08:24 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3276.11 6.12 0.19% 7:08:15 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8551 84 0.99% 1:28:01 AM
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19687 59 0.30% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2422 -38 -1.56% 2:01:32 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7234 13 0.17% 12:46:01 AM
Australian S&P 200 4217.88 2.25 0.05% 12:19:59 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2795.4 -20.45 -0.73% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 247.82 0.01 0.00% 4:05:17 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 16451 -14.58 -0.09% 7:23:21 AM
Karachi KSE-100 11548 243 2.15% 7:03:12 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 131.220 0.030 0.07% 7:13:19 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 101.150 0.060 0.19% 7:23:21 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.836 -0.021 -1.12% 7:23:21 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.210 0.010 0.02% 7:13:18 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.160 0.020 0.05% 7:23:21 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.772 -0.011 -1.44% 7:23:21 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 145.11 0.060 0.13% 7:13:15 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 104.290 0.130 0.39% 7:23:21 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 2.879 -0.020 -0.69% 7:23:21 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.500 -0.025 -0.03% 7:13:22 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.460 -0.030 -0.03% 7:13:22 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.55 -0.05 -0.04% 1:02:00 AM
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/18/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 139.72 0.04 0.03% 7:08:15 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 99.03 0.00 0.00% 1/17/2012
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 117.45 0.27 0.23% 7:08:20 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 98.96 -0.03 -0.03% 7:07:53 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 80.9000 -0.2140 -0.26% 7:13:15 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.8300 0.0000 0.00% 7:23:24 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2785 0.0049 0.38% 7:23:24 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9458 -0.0037 -0.39% 7:23:24 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5348 0.0013 0.08% 7:23:24 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0141 -0.0010 -0.10% 7:23:24 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3027 0.0002 0.02% 7:13:20 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2789 0.0064 0.50% 7:13:23 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0581 0.0048 0.46% 7:13:21 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5339 0.0021 0.14% 7:13:11 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9849 0.0019 0.19% 7:13:15 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1653.0 -2.6 -0.16% 7:13:08 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 30.020 -0.115 -0.38% 7:13:08 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 372.4 -0.6 -0.16% 7:13:19 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 101.16 0.45 0.45% 7:13:21 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 277.38 0.25 0.09% 7:12:18 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 303.23 -0.49 -0.16% 7:13:15 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.511 0.023 0.92% 7:13:09 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 600.00 -4.00 -0.66% 7:13:21 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1173.75 -9.75 -0.82% 7:13:22 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 600.25 -4.50 -0.74% 7:13:09 AM

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• Global stocks this morning are higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.61% and Mar S&Ps up +8.00 points at a 5-1/2 month high. The dollar and Treasuries fell and commodities rallied with gold at a 1-month high and copper at a 2-1/2 month high after China’s Q4 GDP rose expanded more than forecast and Jan German economic sentiment improved more than expected. The Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged +32.8 to -21.6, better than expectations of +4.6 to -49.2 and its best level in 6-months. The euro rose against the dollar after Spanish borrowing costs declined when Spain auctioned 12-month debt at an average yield of 2.049%, compared with 4.05% at a similar auction last month and sold 18-month debt at 2.399%, down from 4.226% last month. Limiting gains in the euro and in European stocks were comments from the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings who said Greek 2-year notes are worth about 23% of face value and that Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros.
• Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +1.05%, China +4.90%, Australia +1.65%, South Korea +1.94%, India +1.71%. Asian stocks rose on speculation the slowest Chinese growth in 10 quarters will prompt monetary easing by the government. Q4 China GDP grew at a +8.9% y/y pace, the weakest in 2-1/2 years, although stronger than expectations of +8.7% y/y. Dec China industrial production climbed +12.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +12.3% y/y, while Dec China retail sales rose +18.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +17.2% y/y, which reduces concern of a hard landing in China. In a sign of policy easing, the PBOC said it injected 169 billion yuan ($26.8 billion) into the financial market through 14-day reverse-repurchase operations as sticky inflation pressures prompts the central bank to inject more cash into the market via reverse-repo operations instead of a cut in banks reserve-ratio requirements ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday that starts Jan 23.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +8.00 points. The US stock market sold-off last Friday amid European credit downgrade concerns along with weakness in bank stocks after JPMorgan’s Q4 profit slumped: Dow Jones -0.39%, S&P 500 -0.49%, Nasdaq Composite -0.51%. The Dow posted a 1-week low. Bearish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign debt crisis will worsen after Dow Jones Newswires reported that several European nations, including France, face “imminent” credit downgrades from Standard & Poor’s, which happened after the markets closed, (2) weakness in bank stocks when JPMorgan Chase reported its Q4 investment-banking revenue declined -30% from a year earlier as many of its clients stayed on the sidelines because of the ongoing European debt crisis, and (3) the Nov U.S. trade deficit which widened to -$47.8 billion, bigger than expectations of -$45.0 billion and is negative for Q4 US GDP.
• Bullish factors last Friday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence which rose to its best level in 8 months (+4.1 to 74.0 versus expectations of +1.6 to 71.5), (2) comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said the inflation outlook is “reasonably good” in the U.S. and the economy will expand at a “modest” rate of +2.0 to +2.5% this year, and (3) the drop in the 10-year T-note yield to a 3-1/2 week low of 1.833%.
• Alcoa (AA) gained 2.9% in pre-market trading as metal prices rallied with copper climbing to a 2-1/2 month high.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -7 ticks. T-note prices last Friday rallied to a fresh contract high and settled higher on a surge in safe-haven demand after stocks tumbled on speculation Standard & Poor’s may cut the credit ratings of France and several other European nations which happened after the markets closed: TYH2 +18.5, FVH2 +8.0, EDM2 unchanged. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-1/2 week low of 1.833%. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after Dow Jones Newswires reported that several European nations, including France, face “imminent” credit downgrades from Standard & Poor’s, (2) additional safe-haven demand for Treasuries after negotiations between Greece’s creditor banks and the Greek government broke off over how much money investors of Greek debt will lose by swapping their bonds, which raises default risks for Greece, and (3 ) the action by the Fed to purchase $4.646 billion of T-notes as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of shorter-maturity Treasuries in its holdings with longer-term debt to keep long-term rates low. A bearish factor was the larger-than-expected increase in the Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence which rose to its best level in 8 months (+4.1 to 74.0 versus expectations of +1.6 to 71.5).
• The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen +0.02 yen and the euro/dollar +1.28 cents. The dollar index last Friday accelerated to a 1-1/3 year high as the euro plunged on speculation of “imminent” credit downgrades of several European countries: Dollar Index +0.745, USDJPY +0.204, EURUSD -0.01352. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar when the euro sank to a 1-1/3 year low against the dollar after Dow Jones Newswires reported that several European nations, including France, face “imminent” credit downgrades from Standard & Poor’s, (2) the action by the IIF to break off talks with Greece amid a coupon dispute as bondholders say the EU agreement to exchange Greek bonds for new securities with a 5% coupon would leave them with a 65% loss in the net present value of their holdings of Greek government debt, more than the 50% haircut banks had agreed upon back in Oct, (3) comments from ECB Council memb er Liikanen who said that “there’s a risk” that economic conditions in the Euro-Zone will continue to worsen, and (4) the larger-than-expected increase in the Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to an 8-month high, which is dollar positive. Bearish factors included (1) the Nov U.S. trade deficit which widened to -$47.8 billion, more than expectations of -$45.0 billion and the largest deficit in 5 months and (2) reduced demand for dollars after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert interest payments into dollars, narrowed to 80 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest in 4-1/2 months.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +$2.12 a barrel and Feb gasoline is +6.56 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled mixed as EU plans to delay a Iranian oil embargo, dollar strength and the threats of credit downgrades to European nations were offset by an increase in U.S. consumer confidence and an ongoing strike in Nigeria: CLG12 -$0.40, RBG12 +0.29. Feb crude posted a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the surge in the dollar index to a 1-1/3 year high, which fueled liquidation of most commodities, (2) carry-over weakness from a late-day slide last Thursday after 2 EU officials said an embargo on Iranian crude imports may be postponed for 6 months to allow nations to find other supplies, and (3) the action by Standard & Poor”s to downgrade the credit ratings of 9 European nations, including France, which sent stocks reeling and may worsen the European debt crisis and fuel demand. Bullish factors included (1) the larger -than-expected increase in the Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to an 8-month high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand and (2) the statement from Nigerian labor unions that they will continue a strike that threatens oil exports from Africa’s top producing country.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): WFC-Wells Fargo (BEST earnings consensus $0.72), C-Citigroup (0.51), CHKP-Check Point Software Technology (0.81), MTB-M&T Bank Corp. (1.52), AMTD-TD Ameritrade Holding (0.26), FRX-Forest Labs (1.01), LLTC-Linear Technology (0.44), AWK-American Water Works (0.33), FRC-First Republic Bank of San Francisco (0.43), EDU-New Oriental Education & Technology (0.06), CREE-Cree Inc. (0.26), MMR-McMoRan Exploration (-0.11), FULT-Fulton Financial (0.20), ADTN-ADTRAN (0.47), OZRK-Bank of the Ozarks (0.49).

Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 1/17/12

United States
0830 ET Jan Empire manufacturing index expected +1.0 to 10.5, Dec +8.9 to 9.5.
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Japan
0100 ET Revised Dec Japan machine tool orders, previous +17.4% y/y.
2330 ET Revised Nov Japan industrial production, previous -2.6% m/m and -4.0% y/y. Revised Nov capacity utilization, previous +4.1% m/m.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Nov U.K. DCLG house prices, Oct -0.4% y/y.
0430 ET Dec U.K. CPI expected +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +4.8% y/y.
0430 ET Dec U.K. core CPI expected +3.0% y/y, Nov +3.2% y/y.
0430 ET Dec U.K. RPI expected +0.3% m/m and +4.7% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +5.2% y/y.
0430 ET Dec U.K. RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +4.9% y/y, Nov +5.3% y/y.
Germany
0500 ET Jan German ZEW survey economic sentiment expected +4.6 to -49.2, Dec +1.4 to -53.8. Jan ZEW survey current situation expected -2.8 to 24.0, Dec -7.4 to 26.8.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Dec Euro-Zone CPI expected +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y. Dec core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Nov +1.6% y/y.
Canada
0900 ET BOC announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% benchmark rate).

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1299.40 8.00 0.62% 7:07:37 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12484 74 0.60% 7:07:58 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2432.07 14.85 0.61% 7:07:30 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5689.53 32.09 0.57% 7:07:33 AM
German Dax Index 6326.70 106.69 1.72% 7:07:34 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3263.41 38.41 1.19% 7:07:30 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8466 88 1.05% 1:28:01 AM
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19628 616 3.24% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2461 115 4.90% 2:01:17 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7221 117 1.65% 12:46:00 AM
Australian S&P 200 4215.63 68.39 1.65% 12:19:59 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2815.85 59.36 2.15% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 247.81 4.71 1.94% 4:05:19 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 16466 276.69 1.71% 7:22:32 AM
Karachi KSE-100 11305 193 1.73% 7:02:27 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 131.095 -0.070 -0.17% 7:12:33 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 100.305 -0.085 -0.26% 7:22:02 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.893 0.030 1.58% 7:22:02 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.165 -0.020 -0.05% 7:12:32 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.110 -0.025 -0.08% 7:21:52 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.806 0.016 2.03% 7:21:52 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 144.12 -0.190 -0.41% 7:12:20 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 103.190 -0.215 -0.64% 7:22:32 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 2.943 0.033 1.13% 7:22:32 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.525 -0.020 -0.02% 7:12:28 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.485 0.005 0.01% 7:12:28 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.60 -0.19 -0.13% 1:02:00 AM
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/17/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 139.46 -0.40 -0.29% 7:07:32 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 99.05 -0.03 -0.03% 6:04:11 AM
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 116.84 -0.26 -0.22% 7:07:33 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 98.98 -0.04 -0.04% 7:03:37 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 80.9420 -0.5370 -0.66% 7:12:25 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.8000 0.0200 0.03% 7:22:34 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2795 0.0128 1.01% 7:22:34 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9458 -0.0084 -0.88% 7:22:34 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5384 0.0059 0.38% 7:22:34 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0131 -0.0048 -0.47% 7:22:33 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3024 -0.0011 -0.08% 7:12:27 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2777 0.0098 0.77% 7:12:34 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0569 0.0084 0.80% 7:12:34 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5362 0.0047 0.31% 7:12:34 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9848 0.0029 0.30% 7:12:13 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1663.4 32.6 2.00% 7:10:56 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 30.410 0.888 3.01% 7:12:26 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 374.2 10.5 2.87% 7:12:29 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 100.82 2.12 2.15% 7:12:28 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 279.98 6.56 2.40% 7:12:18 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 308.67 1.89 0.62% 7:12:26 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.564 -0.106 -3.97% 7:12:32 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 607.50 8.00 1.33% 7:12:11 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1177.50 19.25 1.66% 7:12:21 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 609.00 6.75 1.12% 7:12:02 AM

During the summer of 2011, he loaded up on shares of WebMD (Nasdaq: WBMD), which I discussed in November. (He owns close to 10% of the company now, a stake worth about $156 million.)

Icahn knew that this company possessed had a very strong web presence in one of its most lucrative niches: health care information. And he figured there were ample paths to unlock value when he bought shares last year.

At first blush, Icahn looked brilliant, as shares of WebMD, which had fallen from $55 in April 2011 to under $30 by early October, soon perked up. Shares steadily rebounded to nearly $40 in early 2012 after WebMD announced plans to put itself up for sale.

One small problem: the company appeared to move too hastily. Potential suitors were looking at the company’s business model at a time when business continued to soften. (As I noted in November, drug companies have slowed their ad spending in recent quarters due to a series of patent expirations and heightened Food and Drug Administration scrutiny.) Though we’re not privy to those internal discussions, the potential suitors likely saw the recent (and ongoing) quarterly weakness as an opportunity to put in lowball offers for the company. WebMD’s board issued an emphatic “no thanks” and figured it was wiser to simply take down the “for sale” sign and refocus on the business. For that to happen, new management needs to be brought in, as CEO Wayne Gattinella was let go.

Investors freaked out. Shares plunged nearly 30% on Jan. 10 to a two-year low, levels even below where Carl Icahn bought in. What did he do in response to this setback? He picked up even more stock, acquiring 545,000 shares (worth $14.3 million) on that very same day.

At first glance, Icahn looks clearly mistaken. He had been buying up shares because WebMD is a solid growth story, seemingly poised to grow in tandem with the rising number of senior citizens that are voracious consumers of health care information.

To be sure, 2012 will probably be a challenging year. Sales are likely to fall from around $550 million in 2011 to around $520 million in 2012. That’s not characteristic of a growth stock.

In reality, WebMD is experiencing a natural speed bump on what is still a long-term growth trajectory. The company has become such a vital resource for patients seeking health care information — drug makers need to stay in front of consumers with their marketing messages, and doctors need to move their practice into the electronic age — that it will remain a very strong player.

Icahn knows WebMD will be back in favor again as soon as the quarterly trends turn back up. And he knows that major media and Internet-focused companies still see the company as a prized asset. Of course, these recent events imply that WebMD may take at least several quarters to regain sales momentum. It’s unusual for Icahn to place more funds into an investment that requires patience. Of all the major investors such as Warren Buffett, George Soros, Bill Gates and the like, Icahn has the shortest time horizons when it comes to looking for a payoff.

The series of quarterly shortfalls imply that management underestimated the depth of current industry pressures. Those pressures are unlikely to abate quickly, but it’s important to remember that this has happened to WebMD several times before, and the company has always emerged stronger. Icahn needs to be patient, but you can bet WebMD’s board is well aware of the need to do whatever it takes to get this stock moving. Carl Icahn is watching.

Risks to Consider: If WebMD has indeed found it harder to keep growing at a solid pace, and this turns into a lower-growth business model, then shares may stay range-bound for an extended period.

Action to Take –> Though this has turned into a challenging period for WebMD, Carl Icahn is clearly on to something here. Shares were above $50 last spring not because of a projected P/E ratio or other such metric, but instead because investors realized that this has become a very important piece of real estate on the Internet. I doubt that shares will be back at $55 any time soon, but would not be surprised for a bidder to emerge with a $35 to $40 a share offer — and for the company to accept that offer. That would be a gain of about 25% from current levels.

With more than $1 billion in cash, look for the company to perhaps announce a buyback soon, which should support shares. If so, then this becomes a stock with solid downside and considerable upside.

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David Sterman does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article. StreetAuthority, LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.

This article originally appeared on StreetAuthority
Author: David Sterman
Carl Icahn’s Top Stock Idea Right Now

StreetAuthority.com
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• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.27% and Mar S&Ps down -1.90 points. European stocks rose and the cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and bank debt fell after Italy sold 4.75 billion euros of bonds, its maximum target, as borrowing costs fell. Italy sold 3-year bonds to yield 4.83%, down from 5.62% at a previous sale last month, which eases concern that it will be able to finance its debt. U.S. stock futures are lower after JPMorgan Chase reported a decline in Q4 rofits. The euro weakened against the dollar and Treasuries rose after ECB Council member Liikanen said that “there’s a risk” that economic conditions in the Euro-Zone will continue to worsen. European bank stocks rallied after Handelsblatt reported the European Banking Authority will postpone the annual stress tests for banks usually published in July to allow time for the lenders to get fresh capital to fill gaps documented by the last stress test. In another positive for European banks, the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert interest payments into dollars, narrowed to 80 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest in 4-1/2 months.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.36%, China -1.68%, Australia +0.36%, South Korea +0.75%, India +0.73%. Japanese stocks closed higher, led by a rally in exporters, after lower Italian and Spanish borrowing costs signaled the worst of the European debt crisis may be past. Chinese stocks settled lower as speculation waned that the government would loosen monetary policies. Real estate developers weakened after the China Daily reported that Beijing Mayor Jinlong pledged to restrict property purchases to cool the real estate market. Data from the PBOC showed that Q4 China foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s biggest, fell to $3.18 trillion on Dec 31 from $3.2 trillion on Sep 30, the first quarterly decline since the midst of the Asian financial crisis in Q2 of 1998.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading down -1.90 points. The US stock market on Thursday fluctuated between gains and losses and finally settled higher as a fall in borrowing costs at debt auctions in Europe and upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi offset disappointing data on weekly U.S. jobless claims and Dec retail sales: Dow Jones +0.17%, S&P 500 +0.23%, Nasdaq Composite +0.51%. The S&P 500 posted a 5-1/4 month high and the Nasdaq rose to a 2-month high. Bullish factors included (1) optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi who said he sees “tentative signs” the Euro-Zone economy is stabilizing, which fueled a rally in European stocks that carried over to U.S. markets and (2) strong demand for debt auctions by Spain and Italy which lowered their yields and eases concern the countries will struggle to finance their debts.
• Bearish factors yesterday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (+24,000 to 399,000 versus expectations of +3,000 to 375,000) and (2) the weaker-than-expected Dec U.S. retail sales (+0.1% and -0.2% less autos versus expectations of +0.3% and +0.3% less autos).
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell 2.3% in pre-market trading after the bank reported Q4 profit of 90 cents a share as expected, and said weak trading revenues caused net income to fall to $3.73 billion from $4.83 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +8.5 ticks. T-note prices on Thursday retreated from a 3-week high and settled lower after upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYH2 -7.5, FVH2 -2.2, EDM2 +4.0. Bearish factors included (1) optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi who said he sees “tentative signs” the Euro-Zone economy is stabilizing, (2) strong demand for debt auctions by Spain and Italy which lowered their yields and reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries, and (3) slack demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, weaker than the 12-auction average of 2.68. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (+24,000 to 399,000 versus expectations of +3,000 to 375,000) and (2) the weaker-than-expected Dec U.S. retail sales (+0.1% and -0.2% less autos versus expectations o f +0.3% and +0.3% less autos).
• The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.02 yen and the euro/dollar -0.28 cents. The dollar index on Thursday retreated and settled lower after the euro rallied when ECB President Draghi said he saw signs of stabilization in the economy and after Italy and Spain borrowing costs fell when they had successful government debt auctions: Dollar Index -0.581, USDJPY -0.095, EURUSD +0.01081. Bearish factors included (1) strong demand for debt auctions by Spain and Italy which lowered their yields and eased concern the countries will struggle to finance their debts, (2) euro positive comments from ECB President Draghi who said he sees “tentative signs” the Euro-Zone economy is stabilizing, and (3) weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on weekly jobless claims and Dec retail sales, which is dollar negative. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the British pound which fell to 3-month low against the dollar after Nov U.K. industrial producti on fell more than expected and (2) increased safe-haven demand for he dollar after the statement from the IIF that time is “running out” after talks between banks holding Greek debt and Greek officials failed to find an agreement as bondholders say the EU agreement to exchange Greek bonds for new securities with a 5% coupon would leave them with a 65% loss in the net present value of their holdings of Greek government debt, more than the 50% haircut banks had agreed upon back in Oct.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are down -8 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is +0.40 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday moved higher as the dollar weakened, the European economic outlook improved and as a strike in Nigeria threatens to reduce global crude supplies but prices tumbled late in the session when an EU official said any EU embargo of Iranian oil will likely be delayed for 6 months: CLG12 -$1.77, RBG12 -3.20. Feb gasoline posted a 2-1/2 moth high but shed its gains and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the statement from an EU official that any EU embargo on imports of Iranian crude will likely be delayed for six months to allow some EU members time to find alternative supplies, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in Nov U.K. industrial production, which suggests an economic slowdown, and (3) weak U.S. economic data on Dec retail sales and the larger-than-expected increase in weekly U.S. jobless claims, which signals eco nomic weakness that is negative for energy consumption. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which fuels investment demand in commodities, (2) comments from ECB President Draghi who said there are signs the Euro-Zone economy is stabilizing, which would be positive for fuel demand, and (3) a strike by Nigerian oil workers over the government’s refusal to reinstate fuel subsidies, which threatens to reduce Nigerian crude output.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): JPM-JPMorgan Chase (BEST earnings consensus $0.90), MSCI-MSCI Inc. (0.44), CRAI-CRA International (0.37), NWPX-Northwest Pipe (0.35).

Global Financial Calendar

Friday 1/13/12

United States
0830 ET Dec import price index expected -0.1% m/m and +8.3% y/y, Nov +0.7% m/m and +9.9% y/y.
0830 ET Nov trade balance expected -$45.0 billion, Oct -$43.5 billion.
0955 ET Preliminary Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +1.6 to 71.5, Dec +5.8 to 69.9.
1110 ET Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks on “Regulation and Credit Availability” at the California Bankers Association Bank Presidents Seminar.
1245 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook to the Risk Management Association of Richmond, VA.
1300 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at the Indiana Bankers Association economic outlook forum.
1315 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the “U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the Edward Jones Annual Meeting.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Dec U.K. PPI input prices expected -0.1% m/m and +9.1% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +13.4% y/y.
0430 ET Dec U.K. PPI output prices expected +0.1% m/m and +5.0% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +5.4% y/y.
0430 ET Dec U.K. PPI output core prices expected unchanged m/m and +3.2% y/y, Nov unchanged m/m and +3.2% y/y.
Euro-Zone
n/a EU Financial-Services Commissioner Michel Barnier meets with ECB Council member and BOF President Christian Noyer in Paris.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1289.80 -1.90 -0.15% 7:11:05 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12398 -15 -0.12% 7:10:35 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2405.39 6.55 0.27% 7:06:15 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5664.00 1.58 0.03% 7:06:17 AM
German Dax Index 6198.11 18.90 0.31% 7:06:17 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3229.07 29.09 0.91% 7:06:15 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8500 114 1.36% 1:28:01 AM
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19204 109 0.57% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2394 -41 -1.68% 2:01:37 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7182 -5 -0.07% 12:46:00 AM
Australian S&P 200 4195.89 14.89 0.36% 12:19:59 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2791.54 47.88 1.75% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 245.28 1.82 0.75% 4:05:14 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 16155 117.11 0.73% 7:21:15 AM
Karachi KSE-100 11014 105 0.97% 7:01:11 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 131.075 0.085 0.20% 7:10:58 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 100.305 0.085 0.26% 7:20:57 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.893 -0.030 -1.54% 7:20:57 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.145 0.035 0.08% 7:10:49 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.100 0.030 0.09% 7:20:55 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.812 -0.019 -2.33% 7:20:55 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 144.05 0.190 0.41% 7:11:00 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 103.200 0.190 0.58% 7:21:08 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 2.942 -0.030 -0.99% 7:21:08 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.535 0.020 0.02% 7:10:39 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.510 0.030 0.03% 7:11:01 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.66 0.05 0.04% 1:02:00 AM
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/13/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 139.63 0.47 0.34% 7:06:17 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 99.03 0.02 0.02% 2:47:05 AM
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 116.88 0.27 0.23% 7:06:06 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 99.02 0.03 0.03% 7:05:58 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 80.9750 0.1410 0.17% 7:11:10 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.7400 -0.0200 -0.03% 7:21:17 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2786 -0.0028 -0.22% 7:21:17 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9464 0.0018 0.19% 7:21:17 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5340 0.0007 0.05% 7:21:17 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0181 -0.0010 -0.10% 7:21:17 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3039 0.0002 0.02% 7:10:46 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2781 -0.0050 -0.39% 7:11:14 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0570 -0.0037 -0.35% 7:11:16 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5331 0.0000 0.00% 7:10:59 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9805 0.0004 0.04% 7:10:41 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1640.2 -7.5 -0.46% 7:10:49 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 29.775 -0.349 -1.16% 7:10:50 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 363.1 -1.8 -0.49% 7:11:01 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 99.02 -0.08 -0.08% 7:11:16 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 273.53 0.40 0.15% 7:11:14 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 305.48 0.07 0.02% 7:11:16 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.655 -0.042 -1.56% 7:11:17 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 611.25 -0.25 -0.04% 7:10:52 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1186.00 3.50 0.30% 7:10:44 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 608.25 3.25 0.54% 7:10:19 AM

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.43% and Mar S&Ps up +7.10 points at a 5-1/4 month high. As expected, the BOE maintained its benchmark rate at 0.50% and held the asset purchase target at 275 billion pounds following its policy meeting. European and U.S. stocks rose, the dollar and Treasuries weakened and most commodities gained with copper at a 1-month high, after Spain sold twice the maximum target of bonds and Italy sold 12 billion euros of bills, easing concern the countries will struggle to finance their debts. Spain sold 9.98 billion euros of notes, compared with a target of 5 billion euros, while Italy sold 1-year bills at 2.735%, less than half the 5.952% that they sold at a similar auction last month. The British pound fell to a 3-month low against the dollar after Nov U.K. industrial production fell -0.7% m/m and -3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y, with the -3.1% y/y plunge the largest decl ine in nearly 2 years. On a bright note, Dec German CPI (EU harmonized) was unexpectedly revised lower to +0.7% m/m and +2.3% y/y from the originally reported +0.8% m/m and +2.4% y/y, with the +2.3% y/y increase the smallest in 9 months.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.74%, China -0.02%, Australia -0.16%, South Korea +1.09%, India -0.86%. Chinese stocks closed little changed after Dec China CPI fell for a fifth month to a 15-month low of +4.1% y/y, although stronger than expectations of +4.0% y/y. Japanese stocks closed lower, led by a slide in exporters, after the Nov Japan current-account surplus narrowed 86% to 138.5 billion yen ($1.8 billion), more than expectations of a 248.4 billion yen surplus and the smallest surplus in 2-3/4 years as a strong yen and slowing growth in Europe and China dampened demand for Japanese goods. Stocks in India closed lower despite Nov India industrial production rising +5.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.1% y/y and a sign that consumer and business demand is withstanding the RBI’s recent interest rate hikes.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +7.10 points at a 5-1/4 month high. The US stock market on Wednesday settled mixed as a rally in homebuilder stocks was offset by concern that Europe’s debt crisis will stifle global economic growth: Dow Jones -0.10%, S&P 500 +0.03%, Nasdaq Composite +0.31%. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) carry-over weakness from a decline in European stocks on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and curb economic growth after Nov Spain industrial production contracted by the most in 2 years (-7.0% y/y), (2) comments from David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, who said the ECB should boost bond purchases to support Italy and prevent a “cataclysmic” collapse of the euro, and (3) comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said “some of the more persistent headwinds the economy is facing are more serious than we thought.”
• Bullish factors included (1) a rally in homebuilding stocks after Lennar, the third-biggest U.S. homebuilder, reported a 20% y/y jump in Q4 orders, (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said signs of improvement in the economy are modest and the Fed should push forward with “substantial” easing, and (3) the upbeat Fed Beige Book that said the economy “expanded at a modest to moderate pace” across most of the U.S. from late November through the end of December.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -4.5 ticks. T-note prices on Wednesday rallied to a 3-week high and remained firm most of the day on increased safe-haven demand from the ongoing European debt crisis along with dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans: TYH2 +15.5, FVH2 +5.7, EDM2 +3.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, said the ECB should boost bond purchases to support Italy and prevent a “cataclysmic” collapse of the euro, (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said signs of improvement in the economy are modest and the Fed should push forward with “substantial” easing, and (3) decent demand for the Treasury’s $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.29, stronger than the 12-auction average of 3.14. Bearish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President P losser who said the Fed should watch the risk of accelerating mid-term inflation “very carefully” after injecting record stimulus into the economy, (2) the Fed Beige Book that said the economy “expanded at a modest to moderate pace” across most of the U.S. from late November through the end of December, and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury’s $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds on Thursday.
• The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen unchanged and the euro/dollar +0.68 cents. The dollar index on Wednesday settled higher as the euro slumped to a 1-1/3 year low against the dollar lower on concern the European debt crisis may worsen: Dollar Index +0.546, USDJPY +0.007, EURUSD -0.00714. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after comments from David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, who said the ECB should boost bond purchases to support Italy and prevent a “cataclysmic” collapse of the euro, and (2) the larger-than-expected decline in Nov Spain industrial production which dropped by the most in 2 years (-7% y/y) and is euro negative. Bearish factors included (1) strong demand for a German auction of 5-year notes after Germany received bids on 8.97 billion euros of 5-year notes on auction today, more than double the maximum sales target of 4 billion euros, (2) dollar negative co mments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said signs of improvement in the economy are modest and warrant “substantial” monetary stimulus from the Fed, which suggests he favors implementation of QE3, and (3) reduced demand for dollars by European banks after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, shrank to 89 points below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest in 3-3/4 months.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +$1.33 a barrel and Feb gasoline is +2.39 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday fell back and settled lower as the dollar strengthened, weekly DOE inventories rose more than expected and fuel demand weakened: CLG12 -$1.37, RBG12 -0.95. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which cuts investment demand in commodities, (2) the larger-than-expected increases in weekly DOE inventories after crude supplies rose +4.96 million bbl, stronger than expectations of +1.0 million bbl, while gasoline stockpiles climbed +3.61 million bbl to a 9-3/4 month high of 223.8 million bbl, and (3) slack demand after U.S. gasoline demand for the week ended Jan 6 slipped -4.4% to 8.18 million barrels per day, the lowest in nearly 9 years. Bullish factors included (1) rising tension over Iran’s nuclear program after an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in a car bomb attack and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Eva ns who said the Fed should push forward with “substantial” monetary stimulus, which may boost economic growth and energy demand.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): n/a (BEST earnings consensus $0.00).

Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 1/12/12

United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +3,000 to 375,000, previous -15,000 to 372,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -5,000 to 3.590 million, previous -22,000 to 3.595 million.
0830 ET Dec retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.3% less autos, Nov +0.2% and +0.2% less autos.
1000 ET Nov business inventories expected +0.4%, Oct +0.8%.
1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Jan 19.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
1400 ET Dec monthly budget statement expected -$83.2 billion, Nov -$137.3 billion.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Japan
0000 ET Dec Japan eco watchers survey current, Nov 45.0. Dec eco watchers survey outlook, Nov 44.7.
0100 ET Dec Japan machine tool orders, Nov +15.8% y/y.
2300 ET Dec Japan bankruptcies, Nov +3.2% y/y.
France
0130 ET Dec French CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Nov +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
Germany
0200 ET Revised Dec German CPI (EU harmonized) expected no change at +0.8% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Nov U.K. industrial production expected -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y, Oct -0.7% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
0430 ET Nov U.K. manufacturing production expected -0.2% m/m and -0.5% y/y, Oct -0.7% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
0700 ET BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target (expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate and no change to the 275 billion pound asset purchase target).
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Nov Euro-Zone industrial production expected -0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y.
0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
Canada
0830 ET Nov Canada new housing price index expected +0.2% m/m, Oct +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1295.30 7.10 0.55% 7:09:10 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12446 58 0.47% 7:07:27 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2422.91 10.31 0.43% 7:04:30 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5688.92 18.10 0.32% 7:04:38 AM
German Dax Index 6240.60 88.26 1.43% 7:04:38 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3242.27 37.44 1.17% 7:04:30 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8386 -62 -0.74% 1:28:01 AM
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19095 -57 -0.30% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2435 0 -0.02% 2:01:25 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7187 -2 -0.02% 12:46:01 AM
Australian S&P 200 4181.00 -6.52 -0.16% 12:19:59 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2743.66 -3.47 -0.13% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 243.46 2.63 1.09% 4:05:21 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 16038 -138.35 -0.86% 7:19:37 AM
Karachi KSE-100 10909 -21 -0.20% 6:59:31 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 131.020 -0.045 -0.11% 7:09:32 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 100.215 -0.060 -0.19% 7:19:30 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.925 0.021 1.10% 7:19:30 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.110 -0.025 -0.06% 7:09:31 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.065 -0.025 -0.07% 7:19:16 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.833 0.014 1.76% 7:19:16 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 143.20 -0.120 -0.26% 7:09:28 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 102.245 -0.135 -0.41% 7:19:25 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 2.984 0.021 0.71% 7:19:25 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.515 0.040 0.04% 7:05:19 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.485 0.045 0.05% 7:09:13 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.61 0.13 0.09% 1:02:00 AM
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/12/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 139.13 -0.22 -0.16% 7:04:34 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 98.99 0.00 0.00% 1/11/2012
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 116.61 -0.09 -0.08% 7:04:35 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 98.95 0.03 0.03% 7:04:16 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 81.0440 -0.2140 -0.26% 7:09:35 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.8500 0.0000 0.00% 7:19:38 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2775 0.0068 0.54% 7:19:39 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9484 -0.0057 -0.60% 7:19:39 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5362 0.0033 0.22% 7:19:38 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0143 -0.0053 -0.52% 7:19:38 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3020 0.0000 0.00% 7:09:05 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2759 0.0059 0.46% 7:09:29 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0546 0.0065 0.62% 7:09:28 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5348 0.0041 0.27% 7:09:37 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9830 0.0038 0.39% 7:09:14 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1658.2 18.6 1.13% 7:09:17 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 30.555 0.665 2.22% 7:09:37 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 361.9 7.3 2.06% 7:09:38 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 102.20 1.33 1.32% 7:09:32 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 278.72 2.39 0.86% 7:09:33 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 309.91 3.45 1.13% 7:09:33 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.72 -0.054 -1.95% 7:09:38 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 659.00 7.50 1.15% 7:09:38 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1210.00 7.00 0.58% 7:09:36 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 646.50 5.50 0.86% 7:09:36 AM

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.01% and Mar S&Ps down -5.40 points. The dollar index and Treasuries rose and commodities were mixed, although Feb gold and Mar copper both climbed to 3-1/2 week highs. The euro weakened against the dollar after Nov Spain industrial production slid -7.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -5.4% y/y and the biggest decline in 2 years. Another negative for stocks and the euro were comments from David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings who said the ECB should boost bond purchases to support Italy and prevent a “cataclysmic” collapse of the euro. German bunds rallied after Germany received bids on 8.97 billion euros of 5-year notes on auction today, more than double the maximum sales target of 4 billion euros. European banks continue to refrain from lending as they remain wary of counter-party risk when they parked a record 486 billion euros in overnight deposits at the ECB on Tuesday.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +0.30%, China -0.48%, Australia +0.85%, South Korea -0.36%, India +0.07%. Asian markets finished mostly higher as exporters advanced as optimism about the U.S. economy tempered concern the European debt crisis will worsen. Raw material producers gained as copper climbed to a 3-1/2 week high, while a rally in Indian retailers led India’s stock market higher after the government removed a limit on foreign investment in single-brand store chains, which paves the way for international companies such as Starbucks and Ikea to operate in the country without a local partner. Chinese stocks closed lower, led by a fall in phone companies amid concern increased competition will hurt profits as China Telecom, the third-biggest phone carrier in China, moves closer to getting government approval to offer Apple’s iPhone.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading down -5.40 points. The US stock market on Tuesday moved higher on increased economic optimism amid speculation China may loosen its monetary policy to spur growth: Dow Jones +0.56%, S&P 500 +0.89%, Nasdaq Composite +0.97%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 5-1/4 month highs and the Nasdaq climbed to a 2-month high. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) strength in commodity producers on speculation China will loosen its monetary policies to spur growth after Dec China exports climbed at the slowest pace in 10 months and Dec Chine imports rose at the weakest pace in over 2 years, and (2) comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams it’s “vital” for the Fed to aid the U.S. economy “suffering” from high unemployment, anemic spending and a weak housing market, and that he sees a “strong” case for more Fed purchases of mortgage bonds given his expectations that inflation will fall below 1 .5% this year.
• Bearish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after Fitch Ratings said that Italy faces a “significant chance” of a downgrade when it reviews all European sovereigns at the end of this month, (2) comments from ECB Council member Nowotny who said he sees Euro-Zone growth at zero this year with the risk of a “velvet recession” in the Euro-Zone, and (3) comments from Cleveland Fed President Pianalto who said the U.S. economic recovery is “frustratingly slow” due to “headwinds” such as “depressed” housing markets, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and government spending cuts.
• Microsoft (MSFT) fell 1.0% in pre-market trading after the company said industrywide sales of personal computers in Q4 will probably be lower than analysts projected because supply was hurt by flooding in Thailand.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +4.5 ticks. T-note prices on Tuesday fluctuated between gains and losses and settled slightly lower as a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries and offset dovish Fed commentary and heightened European sovereign debt risks: TYH2 -4.5, FVH2 -2.0, EDM2 +0.5. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rallied to a 5-1/4 month high and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury’s $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes on Wednesday. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Cleveland Fed President Pianalto who said the U.S. economic recovery is “frustratingly slow” due to “headwinds” such as “depressed” housing markets, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and government spending cuts, (2) comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams that it’s “vital” for the Fed to aid the U.S. economy “suffering” from high unemployment, anemic spending and a weak housing market, and that he sees a “strong” case for more Fed purchases of mortgage bonds given his expectations that inflation will fall below 1.5% this year, (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign debt crisis will worsen after Fitch Ratings said that Italy faces a “significant chance” of a downgrade when it reviews all European sovereigns at the end of this month, and (4) record demand for the Treasury’s $32 billion 3-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.73, higher than the 12-auction average of 3.26 and the highest since at least 1993 when the government began releasing the data.
• The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen +0.10 yen and the euro/dollar -0.75 cents. The dollar index on Tuesday settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied and after the euro gained when Nov French industrial production unexpectedly increased: Dollar Index -0.246, USDJPY +0.003, EURUSD +0.00129. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as the S&P 500 rallied to a 5-1/4 month high, (2) strength in the euro after the Dec Bank of France business sentiment and Nov French industrial production both unexpectedly increased, and (3) comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said it’s “vital” for the Fed to support a U.S. economy hobbled by high unemployment, anemic spending and a weak housing market, which suggests he may favor additional Fed stimulus measures. Bullish factors included (1) comments from ECB Council member Nowotny who said he sees Euro-Zone growth at zero this year with the risk of a “velvet recession” in the Euro-Zone, (2) the action by the Bank of Portugal to reduce its 2012 Portuguese GDP estimate to -3.1% contraction, larger than an Oct estimate of -2.2%, which may make it harder to refinance its debt and worsen the European debt crisis, and (3) the statement from Fitch Ratings that Italy faces a “significant chance” of a downgrade when it reviews all European sovereigns at the end of this month, which undercut the euro and boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are down -83 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is -1.13 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled higher as a rally in global equity markets raised economic optimism along with growing concern that geopolitical tensions with Iran may lead to a disruption of global crude supplies: CLG12 +$0.93, RBG12 +1.38. Feb gasoline posted a 2-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand in commodities, (2) the rally in the S&P 500 Index to a 5-1/4 month high, which boost optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand and (3) geopolitical concerns after the EU brought forward a meeting on a possible oil embargo against Iran to Jan 23 from Jan 30. Bearish factors included (1) concern that the Chinese economy is slowing after Dec China exports slowed to their least in 10 months while Dec China imports rose at the weakest pace in over 2 years, which may reduce energy demand and consumption in the world’s second-largest consumer of crude oil and (2) reduced demand for heating oil due to the unseasonably warm U.S. winter this far after data from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center showed average heating days in the U.S. have failed to reach normal levels for 11 straight weeks. Expectations for the weekly inventory report from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to increase +1.0 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to gain +2.5 million bbl, distillates to rise 2.25 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to gain +0.5 to 85.5%.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): LEN-Lennar (BEST earnings consensus $0.15), SVU-SuperValu (0.25), FUL-HB Fuller (0.59), RELL-Richardson Electronics Ltd. (0.10).

Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 1/11/12

United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.1% with purchase mortgage sub-index -9.6% and refinancing sub-index -2.5%.
0840 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to the Rotary Club of Lake Forest, Illinois.
0900 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the U.S. economy at an event in Atlanta.
1230 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Rochester, NY.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ET Fed’s Beige Book.
Japan
0000 ET Nov Japan coincident index CI expected 90.3, Oct 91.4. Nov leading index CI expected 92.9, Oct 92.0.
CHI
2030 ET Dec China PPI expected +1.6% y/y, Nov +2.7% y/y. Dec CPI expected +4.0% y/y, Nov +4.2% y/y.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1280.70 -5.40 -0.42% 7:11:44 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12348 -42 -0.34% 7:10:31 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2401.12 -24.56 -1.01% 7:06:45 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5646.58 -50.12 -0.88% 7:06:56 AM
German Dax Index 6107.74 -55.24 -0.90% 7:06:58 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3182.13 -28.66 -0.89% 7:06:45 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8448 26 0.30% 1:28:01 AM
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19152 148 0.78% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2436 -12 -0.48% 2:01:31 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7188 9 0.13% 12:46:00 AM
Australian S&P 200 4187.52 35.28 0.85% 12:19:59 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2747.13 27.3 1.00% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 240.83 -0.86 -0.36% 4:05:19 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 16176 10.77 0.07% 7:21:56 AM
Karachi KSE-100 10930 -3 -0.02% 7:01:50 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 130.275 0.045 0.11% 7:11:58 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 100.140 0.050 0.16% 7:21:47 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.951 -0.018 -0.89% 7:21:47 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.095 0.020 0.04% 7:11:22 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.060 0.025 0.07% 7:21:55 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.838 -0.015 -1.70% 7:21:55 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 143.03 0.080 0.18% 7:11:41 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 102.105 0.115 0.35% 7:21:57 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 3.006 -0.018 -0.60% 7:21:57 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.470 0.025 0.03% 7:10:04 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.430 0.025 0.03% 7:11:12 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.48 0.05 0.04% 1:02:00 AM
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/11/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 139.00 0.28 0.20% 7:06:59 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 98.96 -0.01 -0.01% 3:27:03 AM
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 116.27 0.14 0.12% 7:06:52 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 98.91 0.02 0.02% 7:00:57 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 81.3180 0.4190 0.52% 7:11:50 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.9500 0.1000 0.13% 7:21:59 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2703 -0.0075 -0.59% 7:21:59 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9547 0.0055 0.58% 7:21:59 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5393 -0.0091 -0.59% 7:21:59 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0169 0.0015 0.15% 7:21:59 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3009 -0.0020 -0.15% 7:11:55 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2695 -0.0097 -0.76% 7:11:58 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0477 -0.0077 -0.73% 7:11:56 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5368 -0.0108 -0.70% 7:11:52 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9812 -0.0016 -0.16% 7:11:53 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1635.2 3.7 0.23% 7:11:52 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 29.770 -0.045 -0.15% 7:11:58 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 350.7 -0.7 -0.19% 7:11:58 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 101.41 -0.83 -0.81% 7:11:55 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 276.15 -1.13 -0.41% 7:10:30 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 309.7 -0.44 -0.14% 7:11:23 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.84 -0.101 -3.43% 7:11:55 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 646.75 -5.25 -0.81% 7:11:56 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1217.50 -14.50 -1.18% 7:11:55 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 634.25 -5.50 -0.86% 7:11:50 AM

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.28% and Mar S&Ps down -0.10 of a point. Stocks and commodities are mixed while Treasuries are weaker as German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy meet in Berlin to discuss measures to rescue the euro over the next 3 months. Treasuries weakened after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said late Saturday that the Fed probably won’t begin a new round of bond purchases (QE 3) following last Friday’s “encouraging” jobs report. Nov German exports rose +2.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5%, which lifted the euro off of a 1-1/4 year low against the dollar. The euro may succumb to additional bouts of short covering after the CFTC late last Friday reported that futures traders increased their net short positions against the euro to a record 138,909 contracts in the week ended Jan 3. Gains in the euro may be limited however, after the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit-default swaps that insure European sovereign debt rose to a record 386 bp. Stock gains may also be limited after Nov German industrial production fell -0.6% m/m and rose +3.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan closed for holiday, China up +3.40%, Australia -0.08%, South Korea -1.06%, India -0.22%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index posted a 2-week high and closed higher on speculation the government is relaxing monetary policies to bolster economic growth. Dec China new loans increased by 640.5 billion yuan, the highest amount in 8 months and stronger than expectations of 575 billion yuan, while Dec China M2 money supply growth expanded at a +13.6% y/y pace, the fastest pace since July and stronger than expectations of +12.9% y/y. Comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also boosted stocks when the Shanghai Securities News reported that he called for measures to boost confidence in the stock market including reforming initial public offerings and improving companies’ dividend payouts.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading little changed, up +0.10 of a point. The US stock market last Friday settled mixed as European recession concerns overshadowed stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and calls by Fed members for additional easing: Dow Jones -0.45%, S&P 500 -0.25%, Nasdaq Composite +0.16%. The Nasdaq posted a 1-3/4 month high. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a fall in European stocks on concern Europe may be headed for recession after Dec Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to a 2-year low (-0.5 to 93.3), Nov Euro-Zone retail sales weakened more than expected (-0.8% m/m), and Nov German factory orders plunged -4.8% m/m, the most in 2-3/4 years, and (2) weakness in bank stocks after Sanford C. Bernstein and Ticonderoga Securities LLC cut their Q4 bank earnings estimates and said a weak Q4 dimmed prospects for a capital-markets rebound in the first half of this year.
• Bullish factors last Friday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec non-farm payrolls (+200,000 versus expectations of +150,000), (2) the unexpected decline in the Dec unemployment rate which fell to its lowest level in 2-3/4 years (-0.2 to 8.5% versus expectations of +0.1 to 8.7%), (3) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec manufacturing payrolls (+23,000 versus expectations of +5,000), (4) the unexpected increase in Dec average weekly hours (+0.1 to 34.4 versus expectations of unchanged at 34.3), which may prompt employers to boost hiring as current employees work more hours, and (5) comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said the Fed may consider further monetary easing to improve the economic outlook.

Today’s Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -2 ticks. T-note prices last Friday fell to a 1-week low after the stronger-than-expected Dec U.S. non-farm payrolls report but then erased their losses and settled higher on dovish Fed comments along with concern Europe may be headed for recession: TYH2 +8, FVH2 +3.2, EDM2 +5.5. Bullish factors included (1) comments from New York Fed President Dudley that suggests he favors additional Fed easing when he said “because the outlook for unemployment is unacceptably high relative to our dual mandate and the outlook for inflation is moderate, I believe it is appropriate to continue to evaluate whether we could provide additional accommodation in a manner that produces more benefits than costs,” (2) comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said “he expects that inflation is likely to be below 2.0% not only in 2012 but also over the next several years” and that the Fed should “further purchases o f mortgage-backed securities to help provide a more rapid recovery in housing,” and (3) recession concerns in Europe after Dec Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to a 2-year low and Nov Euro-Zone retail sales and Nov German factory orders both weakened more than expected. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec non-farm payrolls (+200,000 versus expectations of +150,000), (2) the unexpected decline in the Dec unemployment rate which fell to its lowest level in 2-3/4 years (-0.2 to 8.5% versus expectations of +0.1 to 8.7%), and (3) a pickup in inflation expectations after the spread between 2-year T-notes and TIPS, or breakeven rate, widened to 1.682 percentage points, a 5-month high.
• The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.13 yen and the euro/dollar +0.40 cents. The dollar index last Friday soared to a 13-month high and finished higher as U.S. economic data points to strength in the U.S. economy while Europe may be headed for recession: Dollar Index +0.318, USDJPY -0.148, EURUSD -0.00726. Bullish factors included (1) the slump in the euro to a 1-1/4 year low against the dollar on recession concerns after Dec Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to a 2-year low and Nov Euro-Zone retail sales and Nov German factory orders both weakened more than expected, and (2) the stronger-than-expected Dec U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unexpected decline in the Dec U.S. unemployment rate to a 2-3/4 year low, which signals economic strength that is dollar supportive. Bearish factors included (1) comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said the Fed may consider further monetary easing to improve the economic outlook and (2) dollar nega tive comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said the Fed should “further purchases of mortgage-backed securities to help provide a more rapid recovery in housing.”
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are down -36 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is -0.19 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil prices last Friday settled mixed as a stronger dollar and European recession concerns offset strong U.S. payrolls and Iran concerns: CLG12 -$0.25, RBG12 +1.51. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 13-month high, which reduces investment demand for commodities, and (2) signs that the European economy may be headed for recession after the Dec Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to a 2-year low and Nov Euro-Zone retail sales and Nov German factory orders both weakened more than expected. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unexpected decline in the Dec U.S. unemployment rate to a 2-3/4 year low, which is positive for economic growth and energy demand and (2) heightened geopolitical concerns after an EU official said European foreign ministers are likely to agree t o block Iranian oil imports at a meeting on Jan 30, which may prompt Iran to try to close the Strait of Hormuz where one-sixth of the world’s crude supplies flow through each day.

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): AA-Alcoa (BEST earnings consensus -$0.01), AYI-Acuity Brands (0.66), SCHN-Schnitzer Steel (0.23), MG-Mistras Group (0.25), SMSC-Standard Microsystems (0.33).

Global Financial Calendar

Monday 1/9/12

United States
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1240 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will speak about the U.S. economy to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.
1500 ET Nov consumer credit expected +$7.000 billion, Oct $7.646 billion.
Germany
0200 ET Nov German trade balance expected +12.0 billion euros, Oct +11.6 billion euros. Nov exports expected +0.5% m/m, Oct -3.5% m/m. Nov imports expected +0.5% m/m, Oct -0.7% m/m.
0600 ET Nov German industrial production expected -0.5% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Oct +0.8% m/m and +4.1% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0430 ET Jan Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence, Dec -2.8 to -24.0.
0730 ET German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy meet in Berlin; joint press conference to follow.
Canada
0830 ET Nov Canada building permits expected -3.0% m/m, Oct +11.9% m/m.
1030 ET Q4 Canada business outlook of future sales expected 8.0, Q3 6.0.
United Kingdom
1901 ET Dec U.K. RICS house price balance expected -19%, Nov -17%.
Japan
n/a Japanese markets closed for Coming-of-Age Day.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated

US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H2) 1274.10 -0.10 -0.01% 7:10:09 AM
DJIA (CBOT) (H2) 12315 6 0.05% 7:08:18 AM
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2393.40 -6.75 -0.28% 7:05:15 AM
London UK FTSE Index 5638.05 -11.63 -0.21% 7:05:22 AM
German Dax Index 6046.62 -11.30 -0.19% 7:05:23 AM
French CAC 40 Index 3138.05 0.69 0.02% 7:05:15 AM
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 8390 0 0.00% 1/6/2012
Hong Kong Hang Seng 18866 273 1.47% 3:01:30 AM
China CSI 300 Index 2369 78 3.40% 2:01:34 AM
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7093 -27 -0.39% 12:46:01 AM
Australian S&P 200 4105.40 -3.10 -0.08% 12:42:57 AM
Singapore Str. Times 2691.28 -24.31 -0.90% 4:10:01 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 238.02 -2.55 -1.06% 4:05:29 AM
Bombay Sensex 30 15815 -34.08 -0.22% 7:20:22 AM
Karachi KSE-100 11040 -85 -0.76% 7:00:17 AM
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H2) 130.220 -0.020 -0.05% 7:10:14 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Price 100.110 -0.010 -0.03% 7:20:11 AM
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 1.961 0.004 0.18% 7:20:11 AM
5yr T-note (CBT)(H2) 123.055 -0.015 -0.03% 7:10:04 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.025 -0.010 -0.02% 7:20:13 AM
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 0.859 0.005 0.56% 7:20:13 AM
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H2) 142.26 -0.070 -0.15% 7:10:10 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 102.025 -0.020 -0.06% 7:19:30 AM
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 3.019 0.003 0.10% 7:19:30 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(H2) 99.435 0.030 0.03% 7:07:53 AM
Eurodollars (CME)(M2) 99.395 0.040 0.04% 7:10:01 AM
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H2) 142.43 0.00 0.00% 1/6/2012
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H2) 99.655 0.000 0.00% 1/9/2012
Bunds (Eurex) (H2) 138.60 -0.24 -0.17% 7:05:18 AM
Euribor (Eurex) (H2) 98.99 0.00 0.00% 1/6/2012
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H2) 116.38 -0.10 -0.09% 7:04:52 AM
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H2) 98.90 0.01 0.01% 7:03:22 AM
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 81.0540 -0.2060 -0.25% 7:10:20 AM
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 76.8400 -0.1300 -0.17% 7:20:23 AM
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.2757 0.0040 0.31% 7:20:23 AM
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 0.9525 -0.0027 -0.28% 7:20:23 AM
British Pound-US$ 1.5443 0.0017 0.11% 7:20:23 AM
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0291 0.0007 0.07% 7:20:23 AM
Yen (Globex) (H2) 1.3029 0.0033 0.25% 7:10:02 AM
Euro FX (Globex) (H2) 1.2770 0.0041 0.32% 7:10:14 AM
SwissFranc (Globex)(H2) 1.0521 0.0038 0.36% 7:09:43 AM
British Pound(Glbx)(H2) 1.5430 0.0016 0.10% 7:10:10 AM
Canadian$ (Globex)(H2) 0.9707 -0.0017 -0.17% 7:10:14 AM
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (G2) 1619.6 2.8 0.17% 7:10:12 AM
Silver (Comex) (H2) 28.840 0.157 0.55% 7:10:22 AM
Copper (Comex) (H2) 341.9 -1.6 -0.47% 7:09:36 AM
Crude Oil (Nymex) (G2) 101.20 -0.36 -0.35% 7:10:23 AM
Gasoline (Nymex) (G2) 274.97 -0.19 -0.07% 7:03:28 AM
Heating Oil(Nymex) (G2) 307.28 0.26 0.08% 7:10:11 AM
NaturalGas(Nymex)(G2) 2.992 -0.07 -2.29% 7:10:19 AM
Corn (CBOT) (H2) 652.00 8.50 1.32% 7:10:22 AM
Soybeans (CBOT) (H2) 1208.00 11.50 0.96% 7:10:02 AM
Wheat (CBOT) (H2) 635.00 10.25 1.64% 7:10:22 AM