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PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/20/07

Thursday, December 20th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterThe Dow Jones industrial average gained nearly 0.3 percent. The broader S&P 500 index gained nearly 0.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite gained 1.5 percent.

Stocks opened higher Thursday morning, despite news of a writedown by Wall Street fixture Bear Stearns and weak earnings from FedEx.

But the session turned mixed in afternoon trade with the Nasdaq leading other major indexes. Near the close, stocks regained some momentum to close slightly higher.

Friday brings a University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment, which Wall Street monitors for information on consumer spending habits.

After the closing, BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion Ltd reported strong third-quarter earnings, sending the company’s stock up 14 percent after hours.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/19/07

Wednesday, December 19th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterStocks fluctuated Wednesday, ending a volatile session mixed after being briefly supported by news from the Federal Reserve, then slipped as credit concerns dampened enthusiasm.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell roughly 2 percent. The broader S&P 500 index was down 1.4 percent. The Nasdaq composite gained 0.2 percent.

Stocks were up in early trading as the Fed announced results for its first auction of $20 billion, signaling strong demand for the plan aimed at thawing frozen credit markets.

But Morgan Stanley’s $5.7 billion subprime related writedown and credit market concerns brought up by Standard & Poor’s warnings about bond insurers’ credit ratings, dragged the markets down in the afternoon.

Thursday brings economic reports from the government on third quarter gross domestic product and leading economic indicators. Also, Bear Stearns Corp will report its earnings for the fourth quarter.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/18/07

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterStocks gained Tuesday at the end of a rocky session that saw strong earnings from Goldman Sachs offset by concerns about how the credit market crisis will impact the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average added 0.5 percent. The broader S&P 500 index added 0.6 percent. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite gained 0.8 percent. Treasury prices were mixed. The dollar was lower against the euro but gained against the yen. Oil prices slipped and gold prices rose.

Stocks had risen through the mid morning thanks to earnings from Goldman Sachs and Best Buy and news that the European Central Bank made billions available to keep the banking system liquid.

But gains wavered throughout the afternoon, as some of the broader economic worries of recent weeks returned. Afternoon buying in technology and commodities gave the markets a leg up near the close.

Wednesday brings earnings from Morgan Stanley, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s latest mortgage purchases news and comments from Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/17/07

Monday, December 17th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterStocks tanked Monday, building on the previous week’s declines, as investors continued to worry about the economic outlook amid rising inflationary pressures and slower growth prospects.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.3 percent. The broader S&P 500 index lost around 1.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite lost 2.3 percent.

The Federal Reserve offered $20 billion in 28-day credit through an auction Monday. The goal is for commercial banks to borrow from the Fed and then boost their lending to businesses and consumers. Results will be released Wednesday.

The series of auctions are part of the central bank’s ongoing efforts to loosen up tight credit markets. Last week, the central bank also cut interest rates for the third time in a row since September as a means of adding liquidity to the banking system and tempering the risks to an economic recession.

But investors are worried that the Fed may have to put the brakes on its rate-cutting campaign, particularly if inflationary pressures keep rising. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sunday that the economy was at growing risk for stagflation - an environment in which the economy must contend with rising inflation and slower growth.

Tuesday brings the November reports on housing starts and building permits, both expected to show declines.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/13/07

Thursday, December 13th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterIt was a day of small gains and losses for the market. The Dow declined 44.06 to close at 13,517.96. Then, the Nasdaq closed at 2,668 after declining 2.65 points. The S&P closed at 1,488.41 after gaining 1.82 points. Although financial service industry is in a crisis due to bad subprime mortgage loans, investors think that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates that much in 2008.

Today, the government reported that the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices, rose 3.2 percent. This increase was mostly cause to soaring oil prices. Nevertheless, the core PPI number, rose 0.4 percent, above Wall Street’s expectations of just a 0.2 percent increase. These numbers indicate that inflation is still a concern for many people.

Stocks have been volatile all fall as investors have sorted through the ongoing problems in the housing and credit markets amid worries about a possible recession. In particular, the developments in the credit markets have left investors worried about the future of the market.

A separate report showed a stronger-than-expected jump in November retail sales and in sales excluding autos. Another report showed a bigger drop in weekly jobless claims than economists were expecting. The business inventories rose 0.1 percent in October.

In corporate news, Lehman Brothers reported a decline in quarterly profit that topped estimates. Shares fell through most of the session on the news. Washington Mutual dipped after Banc of America Securities downgraded it to “hold.” Citigroup also finished with losses.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/12/07

Wednesday, December 12th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterThe Dow closed at 13,473.90 after increasing 41.13 points. Also, the Nasdaq rose 18.79 points to close at 2,671.14. Besides, the S&P 500 increased 8.94 points to close at 1,486.59. There was a lot of volatility in the market this week, due to disappointing news for investors about cuts in rates. Today there were warnings from many banks, such as Bank of America, Wachovia and PNC disclosing that as a result of bad credit conditions, the earnings for the fourth-quarter were likely to disappoint the investors.

Also, there were speculations about Citigroup about new CEO. Besides, Morgan Stanley was considering employee layoffs as part of cost-cutting measures. The KBW Bank Index, which measures 50 of the largest banks in the U.S. was up 2.7 percent ahead of Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Amex Securities Broker-Dealer Index also increased about 3.8 percent on Wednesday.

The financial sector remains unclear about the extent of credit crisis. When the Federal Reserve provided not so positive news about rates yesterday, the Dow fell almost 300 points. Today, the market rallied during the morning, but it cooled off after the Fed said it was teaming up with other banks to pour billions into banking systems around the world.

There are still fears of recession next year, but recent reports have suggested that some economic strength exists outside of the housing and credit markets. Nevertheless, many stocks seem to do well this time of the year and that might be helping offset some of the bigger worries.

Analysts believe that the upcoming brokerage earnings, which kicks off tomorrow Thursday by Lehman Brothers are worrying many investors. The brokerage earnings are likely to be worse than many people expect.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/11/07

Tuesday, December 11th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterIt was a tough day for the market. The Dow declined 294.26 points to close at 13,432.77. Also, the Nasdaq fell 66 points to close at 2,652.35. The S&P declined 38.31 points to close at 1,477.65. The fall on the market was caused probably due to disappointments about the expected quarter percent rate cut. Some investors were hoping that the Fed would actually cut rates by 50 basis points. The discount rate, which is the rate at which banks can borrow from the Fed, was also dropped by a quarter-point to 4.75 percent.

After the market closed, Treasury prices soared. The two-year note was up 15/32 in price, pushing the yield down to 2.92 percent. The Fed was very careful to remove from its statement that the risk of an inflation was roughly balanced, although Fed did declare it in the previous meeting on October 31st. There is still a discussion about prices potentially increasing. Now, the Fed has decreased rates at three straight meetings this year.

In other new, General Electric reported that 2008 earnings should increase at least 10 percent to $2.42 per share, which was not as positive as expected. GE was expected to earn $2.49 per share in 2008 earnings.

Also, Citigroup reported today that Vikram Pandit would take over the job of chief executive, replacing CEO Charles Prince. Nevertheless, Citigroup shares still declined as did many other banks. Among other banks that decreased due to today’s negative news about the economy were JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers.

Among winners today were shares of AT&T, after it announced that it would increase its quarterly dividend and that it would buy back 400 million shares of its stock. Shares for AT&T increased 4.1 percent.

On the other hand, Freddie Mac’s chief executive reported that the company will probably lose another $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion over the next few years due to housing market crisis. Also, H&R Block announced that it expects to report losses this quarter due to the impact from its mortgage unit.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/10/07

Monday, December 10th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterIt was a day of gains for the market. The Dow rose 101.45 to close at 13,727.03. Also, the Nasdaq gained 12.79 points to close at 2,718.95. The S&P closed at 1,515.96 after rising 11.30 points. The rally in the market we saw today was influenced by bets from investors for a cut in interest rates tomorrow.

Today’s rally in the market has different interpretations. Analyst Karen Finerman believes that the market keeps rallying off the same news of a Fed rate cut. Mrs. Finerman thinks that the rate cut is already in the market. Other analysts believe that rally in the market today was due to stronger-than-expected pending home sales report, which would show the housing crisis is not as terrible as investors may think.. Some analysts also think that the Fed may cut the Fed funds rate by a quarter point and it will cut the discount rate by half a point. But, the Fed funds rate is the most watched by investors right now because it has a direct impact on how much interest consumers pay on credit card borrowings, home equity lines of credit, as well as car loans.

Nevertheless, right after the close today, mortgage lender Washington Mutual announced that it was cutting its dividends and approximately 3,000 jobs due to the housing and credit market. In corporate news, UBS issued a profit warning saying that it will write down about $10 billion related to the credit market crisis. The company UBS also announced that it will borrow about $11.5 billion from outside investors

Tomorrow’s Fed meeting is expected to cut the fed funds rate by a quarter-percentage point or 0.25 percent to 4.25 percent. The Fed has also cut rates in the last two meetings. Nevertheless, many investors are hoping that the Fed will cut a half-percentage point, but such bets were diminished after negative results from November job reports. The cut of interest rate impacts consumer borrowing costs. In other words, it loosens up the credit market and tries to keep the economy out of recession. Analysts think that we might see a lot of selling after news from the Fed are released on Tuesday.

It looks like the writer’s strike in Hollywood is not near an end. According to people familiar with the subject, if the strike continues through the winter, television programming will begin to feel the negative effects for the first quarter of 2008.

Among stocks winners, shares of McDonnalds rose 8.2 percent, after a report for Novermber sales showed that sales rose above estimates this quarter. Also, MGI pharma rallied nearly 20 percent after company accepted to be acquired by Japanese company Eisai for about $3.9 billion in cash.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/7/07

Friday, December 7th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterThe market was pretty much unchanged today. The Dow closed at 13,625. 58 after gaining 5.69 points. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq declined 2.87 points to close at 2,706.16 and the S&P also declined 2.6 points to close at 1,504.66. Today’s economic reports did not make investors too optimistic about the outlook of the economy.

Employers added 94,000 jobs to their payrolls in November. The overall unemployment rate held steady at 4.7 percent, but it did not rise to 4.9 percent as expected. November job reports suggest that the Fed may not need to cut rates by a large amount after all. The Fed policy committee will meet next Tuesday and it is expected to cut interest rates by at least a quarter percentage points.

Palm decreased about 13 percent after news showed that there would be a net loss for its latest quarter. Meanwhile, in the technology sector, shares from Macrovision Corp. ended 21.4 percent lower after reports showed that it would acquire Gemstar-TV Guide International, Inc. for $2.8 billion in cash and stock. Also, shares of Gemstar-TV Guide fell 16.6 percent.

Amgen declined 5.5 percent in Nasdaq due to worries about the prospects of stricter safety labeling for its anemia drug. The company said it would be discussing labeling updates for its drug Aranesp with the Food and Drug Administration. Sahres of Amgen fell $3.05 to close at $52.10.

U.S. equities have shown gains during past days. Recently, the Dow climbed 371.16 points, caused by speculations from investors about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for a third time this year.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 12/5/07

Wednesday, December 5th, 2007

PortfolioCrafterIt was a day of gains for the stock market. The Dow rose 196.23 points to close at 13,444.96. Also, the Nasdaq rose 46.53 points to close at 2666.36. The S&P increased 22.22 points to close at 1,485.01. Even the volume of stocks was high in the Nasdaq and the NYSE. The rally in stocks was influenced by positive news about the economy. Many investors think that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in next policy meeting.

October factory increased 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent in the month of September. Nevertheless, this increase in orders was mostly caused to surging energy prices. In other words, the cost of petroleum and other energy prices pumped up orders at chemical plants. This 0.5 percent increase in factory orders has been the best since the month of July.

Among winners and losers today, Intel shares and Fannie shares rose, as opposed to companies such as Comcast and Genentech shares that posted loses. Intel closed at 27.22 after increasing 0.91 points. Gains were influenced by an upgrade from analyst Thomas Weisel. Also, Fannie shares showed gains after Fannie Mae said it was selling $7 billion in specialized stock to raise money since it was expecting losses from loans with high risk. On the other hand, Comcast declined over 12 percent after it informed that company expects to lose customers in 2008 due to increased competition. Genentech also declined today after the FDA announced that company’s Avastin cannot be used as breast cancer treatment.

Today, there were also positive economic reports that calmed investors’ worries. Reports showed strong third-quarter productivity and also strong private sector employment.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter