Archive for August, 2006

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/31/06

Thursday, August 31st, 2006

PortfolioCrafterStocks closed near flat on the day, but higher on the month with the market managing to overcome a long list of economic, energy price and political worries during August. Investors welcomed upbeat reports on the economy and inflation but played it cautious after the recent rally and ahead of tomorrow’s monthly employment report.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 1.76 or 0.02% to 11,381.15, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 0.45 or 0.03% to 1,303.82, and the Nasdaq composite index closed down 1.98 or 0.09% to 2,183.75. For the month, the Dow rose 1.7%, the S&P 500 advanced 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.4%. In comparison, your Model Portfolio gained 12.51% for the month – outperforming the market by nearly 200%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers 19 to 13 on volume of 1.32 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by 15 to 14 as 1.73 billion shares changed hands.

In an afternoon speech, the Fed Chief Ben Bernanke said that the strong increase in productivity seen over the past decade is likely to continue for some time. His speech was cautiously optimistic in that the longer-term rate of productivity growth could remain at roughly 2.5% per year. However, he did not address interest rate policy, and stocks showed little reaction.

Under economic news, July personal income rose 0.5%, while personal spending rose 0.8%. This shows that consumer spending is holding up, even amid a cooling in the housing market and still expensive oil and gas prices. As spending fuels two-thirds of economic growth, the report is encouraging for the economy. The PCE index rose 0.1% against the expected 0.2%. Core U.S. consumer prices rose a less-than-expected 0.1% against the expected 0.2%. Overall inflation increased by 0.3%, reflecting higher energy prices.

The Chicago PMI, fell to 57.1 in August from 57.9 in July, against the expected 57.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The employment component of the index rose to 55.1 in August from 50.5 in July. Prices paid slipped to 75.2 in August from 86.8 in July. New orders edged down to 59.6 in August from 60.0 in July.

In July, factory orders fell 0.6%, against the expected drop of 0.8%. New orders at U.S. factories fell by a smaller-than-expected 0.6% against the expected 1% decline. Total unfilled orders for durable goods, rose 1.3& and durable goods inventories rose 1.0%.

A number of retailers reported August sales at stores open a year or more, and the results were mixed. Many U.S. chain store operators failed to get a hoped-for back-to-school sales boost. Among the laggards, Gap Inc posted a 7% decline in August same-store sales. Analysts had expected it to post a 3.4% decline for the month.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported August same-store sales at the high end of its own expectations, helped by solid back-to-school purchases, and forecast same store sales would increase by 1% to 3% next month. This propelled the stock to close up $0.12 or 2.7% to $44.74. Same store sales rose 2.7% against the expected 2.5%. Total sales reached $25.97 billion, up 12.5% from last year.

In merger news, Goldcorp said it was buying rival Glamis Gold for $8.6 billion in stock. Shares of Goldcorp Inc closed down $2.84 or 8.6% to $27.63, after this announcement. On the other hand, stock of Glamis closed up $7.32 or 20% to $46.18. The fact that the offer was for a 33% premium was not welcomed by investors. Goldcorp, which has operations in the Americas and Australia, would also gain about 26 million ounces of annual silver production.

Valassis Communications, a marketing company, filed a lawsuit to end its $1.3 billion merger with Advo, a direct-mail marketer, owing to what it said was management’s misinformation about the company’s finances. This lead shares of Advo to close down $7.99 or 25% to $28.81, and that of Valassis to close down $1.22 or 95 to $19.79.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 23 cents to $70.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. News of an increase in natural gas supplies helped ease energy supply worries for the moment.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
30-day risk-free trial

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 8/30/06

Thursday, August 31st, 2006

CramersMadMoney.comPlease do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the shows, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Wednesday’s Mad Money special show “Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms” was first broadcast on April 14, 2006.

Bullish
Alliant Techsystems (ATK) (featured on Mad Money)
Altria (MO) (featured on Mad Money)
Brown-Forman (BF.B) (featured on Mad Money)
Constellation Brands (STZ) (featured on Mad Money)
Diageo (DEO) (featured on Mad Money)
Reynolds American (RAI) (featured on Mad Money)
Smith & Wesson (SWB) (featured on Mad Money)
UST (UST) (featured on Mad Money)

Bearish
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) (featured on Mad Money)

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PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/30/06

Thursday, August 31st, 2006

PortfolioCrafterStocks finished higher with investors hoping that weaker Treasury yields may signal an end to Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The market also absorbed news of an upward revision to second-quarter GDP data that, while higher than the original estimate, was below expectations. Tech stocks rallied for a fifth session in a row, while the broader market ended little changed.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 12.97 or 0.11% to 11,382.91, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 0.01 to 1,304.27, and the Nasdaq composite index closed up 13.43 or 0.62% to 2,185.73.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by 5 to 3 on volume of almost 1.28 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 18 to 11 as roughly 1.67 billion shares changed hands.

Investors welcomed falling oil prices and a revised read on second-quarter GDP. However, they chose to tread cautiously and move forward slowly. Economic reports that are due soon shall give some direction to the markets. Of significance are the personal income and spending reports, in particular, the report’s inflation component which is expected to have risen at a 2.5% against the Fed’s target of 1-2%. The monthly employment report for August would also be closely watched. However, Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Lacker said that there is a risk of inflation becoming entrenched and that an unfolding economic slowdown might not be enough to bring inflation down quickly. He opines that the economic slowdown may not be enough to slow inflation.

The GDP growth for the second quarter was revised up to 2.9% and the key inflation component was revised a bit lower. This eased some recent worries about the economy slowing too fast and heading toward a recession. The revision is largely due to higher investments in nonresidential construction, more inventory building and higher exports, offset by lower investments in housing.

Shares of Apple Computer Inc. finished up $0.48 or 0.8% to $66.96 after the CEO of Google Inc. Eric Schmidt, was named to the Apple’s board. Shares of Google closed up $1.80 to $380.75. Before joining Google, Schmidt served as CEO at Novell Inc. and was also the CTO at Sun Microsystems Inc.

Shares of Costco Wholesale Corp. dropped $2.07 or 4.2% to close at $47.15, after warning that current-quarter earnings won’t meet forecasts because of weaker gross margins. The management said that a higher return rate on electronics devices, as well as markdowns of those devices, other merchandise and furniture contributed to the shortfall. This was unsettling to market as participants worried about a slowdown in consumer spending, amid the cooling in the housing market and ongoing high gas prices.

Shares of General Motors Corp. ended 0.7% lower at $29.25. The CEO Rick Wagoner said the automaker’s North American turnaround strategy is “working just great,” and that the company remains focused on cutting costs, investing in new products and improving its marketing strategies in the U.S.

On reports of earning warning, shares of Novell closed down $0.14 or 2% to $6.64. The company announced that fourth-quarter sales and earnings won’t meet estimates as a result of disappointing sales.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery gained 32 cents to settle at $70.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Supply concerns increased ahead of Thursday’s deadline for Iran to meet a U.N. demand that it halt uranium enrichment. On the other hand, the Energy Department reported that crude supplies rose 2.4 million barrels to 332.8 million for the latest week.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
30-day risk-free trial

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 8/29/06

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

CramersMadMoney.comNEW! Bookmark and get the recaps online here: http://www.Mad-Money-Recap.com

Tuesday’s show was a repeat of a show that first aired in October, 2005. No new picks.

Click here to see the last recap of new picks

I just checked Mark McRae’s web page and I see that there are less than 100 courses left. This means that sell-out of his Surefire Trading Plans is pretty much a sure thing in the next 24 hours.

I think it is important for you to know that Mark has sold out every course he has ever released and this will be no exception. Anyway, I didn’t want you miss out and have to pay full price for the course 24 hours from now!

You can check to see if there are any left by clicking here

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/29/06

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

PortfolioCrafterStocks closed sharply after a weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto relieved investors and sent crude prices lower. Positive momentum was reinforced by news upbeat corporate news energy transporter Kinder Morgan accepting a $22 billion buyout and by other bits of mergers and acquisition news.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 67.96 or 0.6% to 11,352.01, the broader S&P 500 index closed up 6.69 or 0.52% to 1,301.78, and the Nasdaq composite index closed up 20.41 or 0.95% to 2,160.70.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by 23 to 9 on volume of 1.2 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners also by 9 to 5 as 1.4 billion shares changed hands.

The three major factors that regulated the market today were, the decline in crude prices, the strong sales news from Wal-Mart, and the continued resiliency of mergers and acquisitions. The market will however, continue to wait for more information about the economy. Investors are looking forward to the employment report due Friday and it is expected that jobs will increase by 130,000 this month. The jobless rate is also expected to be down at 4.7%. The PCE index is expected to show an advance of 0.2%. Additionally, tomorrow investors will see the minutes from the Fed’s August 8 meeting and the August report on Consumer Confidence.

Shares of eBay closed up $0.49 to $25.79, and that of search engine Google ramped up $7.69 to $380.95, on announcement of a mutual deal. Google Inc. has gained exclusive rights to display text advertisements on the auction sites of eBay Inc. outside the U.S., giving eBay access to the Internet’s largest inventory of search-based ads and Google more Web pages on which to display them.

On buy back news, stock of Amazon.com closed up 0.88 to $28.91, after its board of directors authorized the company to buy back up to $500 million in common stock. Shares of Intel gained $0.48 to $19.38, after Friedman Billings Ramsey’s Chris Caso upgraded it to “Outperform” from “Market Perform.”

Stock of Ford Motor Co. gained $0.05% or 0.6% to $8.05 on news that it is considering a sale of a stake in its financing arm. This is a part of a sweeping restructuring plan for the company.

Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. closed up $0.55 or over 1% to $44.43, after the company estimated that August sales rose 2.7% at its U.S. stores open at least a year, near the high end of its forecast.

U.S. light crude fell $1.90 to $70.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The news that Ernesto has weakened and veered away eased supply worries. Hurricane Ernesto has been downgraded to tropical storm status and forecasts suggest it will miss oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and hit South Florida instead.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
30-day risk-free trial

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 8/28/06

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006

CramersMadMoney.comPlease do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the shows, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Monday’s show was a repeat of the show aired on January 31, 2006.

Bullish - Top Ten American Manufacturers (in alphabetical order)

Boeing (BA) (featured on Mad Money)
Caterpillar (CAT) (featured on Mad Money)
Cummins (CMI) (featured on Mad Money)
Deere (DE) (featured on Mad Money)
Dow Chemical (DOW) (featured on Mad Money)
Fluor (FLR) (featured on Mad Money)
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) (featured on Mad Money)
Nucor (NUE) (featured on Mad Money)
Toyota Motor (TM) (featured on Mad Money)
United Technologies (UTX) (featured on Mad Money)

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PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/28/06

Monday, August 28th, 2006

PortfolioCrafterStocks closed sharply after a weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto relieved investors and sent crude prices lower. Positive momentum was reinforced by news upbeat corporate news energy transporter Kinder Morgan accepting a $22 billion buyout and by other bits of mergers and acquisition news.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 67.96 or 0.6% to 11,352.01, the broader S&P 500 index closed up 6.69 or 0.52% to 1,301.78, and the Nasdaq composite index closed up 20.41 or 0.95% to 2,160.70.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by 23 to 9 on volume of 1.2 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners also by 9 to 5 as 1.4 billion shares changed hands.

The three major factors that regulated the market today were, the decline in crude prices, the strong sales news from Wal-Mart, and the continued resiliency of mergers and acquisitions. The market will however, continue to wait for more information about the economy. Investors are looking forward to the employment report due Friday and it is expected that jobs will increase by 130,000 this month. The jobless rate is also expected to be down at 4.7%. The PCE index is expected to show an advance of 0.2%. Additionally, tomorrow investors will see the minutes from the Fed’s August 8 meeting and the August report on Consumer Confidence.

Shares of eBay closed up $0.49 to $25.79, and that of search engine Google ramped up $7.69 to $380.95, on announcement of a mutual deal. Google Inc. has gained exclusive rights to display text advertisements on the auction sites of eBay Inc. outside the U.S., giving eBay access to the Internet’s largest inventory of search-based ads and Google more Web pages on which to display them.

On buy back news, stock of Amazon.com closed up 0.88 to $28.91, after its board of directors authorized the company to buy back up to $500 million in common stock. Shares of Intel gained $0.48 to $19.38, after Friedman Billings Ramsey’s Chris Caso upgraded it to “Outperform” from “Market Perform.”

Stock of Ford Motor Co. gained $0.05% or 0.6% to $8.05 on news that it is considering a sale of a stake in its financing arm. This is a part of a sweeping restructuring plan for the company.

Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. closed up $0.55 or over 1% to $44.43, after the company estimated that August sales rose 2.7% at its U.S. stores open at least a year, near the high end of its forecast.

U.S. light crude fell $1.90 to $70.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The news that Ernesto has weakened and veered away eased supply worries. Hurricane Ernesto has been downgraded to tropical storm status and forecasts suggest it will miss oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and hit South Florida instead.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
30-day risk-free trial

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 8/25/06

Sunday, August 27th, 2006

CramersMadMoney.comNEW! Bookmark and get the recaps online here: http://www.Mad-Money-Recap.com

Friday’s show was a repeat of a show that first aired in October, 2005. No new picks.

Click here to see the last recap of new picks

I just checked Mark McRae’s web page and I see that there are less than 100 courses left. This means that sell-out of his Surefire Trading Plans is pretty much a sure thing in the next 24 hours.

I think it is important for you to know that Mark has sold out every course he has ever released and this will be no exception. Anyway, I didn’t want you miss out and have to pay full price for the course 24 hours from now!

You can check to see if there are any left by clicking here

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/25/06

Friday, August 25th, 2006

PortfolioCrafterStocks closed mixed with all three major averages taking weekly losses due to concern over the outlook for interest rates and mounting fear of a sharper than expected slowdown in economic growth. Today, tech shares closed higher and blue-chips closed lower, at the end of a choppy session that was driven mostly by fluctuating oil prices.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 20.41 or 0.18% to 11,284.05, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 0.97 or 0.07% to 1,295.09, and the Nasdaq composite index closed up 3.18 or 0.15% to 2,140.29. For the week, the Dow ended down 0.9%, the S&P closed lower 0.05% and the Nasdaq lost 1.1%.

Market breadth was positive and trading volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by 16 to 15 on volume of 1.06 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped decliners 15 to 13 as 1.30 billion shares changed hands.

Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke confined his speech to the subject of global economic integration at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole retreat in Wyoming. He said that economic policymakers have to make sure that enough segments of society feel the benefits of globalization in order to guard against protectionism. Investors were disappointed as they had been expecting that he would also address the issues of inflation and economic growth.

Uncertain future is making investors nervous and the markets are behaving erratically. Investors have growing evidence showing the housing market is slowing down, but they could, at the same time, be putting too much weight on what that means for the economy. Adding to concerns, new orders for U.S. made durable goods tumbled 2.4% in July against the expected 0.7%. There is adequate evidence that the economy is slowing down, but it’s not clear that it’s slowing enough to stop inflation. At the same time, there is also the problem that the economy is slowing enough to hurt corporate earnings.

Stock of Ford Motor Co closed up 3.1% to $8, after Robert Rubin, a senior Citigroup Inc. executive, resigned from the automaker’s board of directors, on which he had served since 2000. The resignation is to avoid any questions of a conflict of interest, since Ford is undergoing a strategic review and Citigroup has a broad relationship with the automaker. Ford is looking to sell its luxury brands, including Jaguar and Land Rover. Additionally, it may be thinking of joining a Renault-Nissan alliance and that the Ford family may be considering taking the company private. As a reaction, stock of Citigroup closed down $0.08 to $48.64.

Stock of Toyota Motor Co. fell 2% to $106.12 after a Wall Street Journal reported that it may delay introducing some new models by as much as half a year in order to deal with quality problems that have arisen in the U.S. and Japan. This has dealt a blow to the Japanese car maker’s reputation for reliability. The company is recalling more than 20,000 cars in China because of a windshield problem.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery added 15 cents to settle at $72.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures rallied as a tropical depression over the Atlantic has the potential to strengthen and reach the Gulf of Mexico, holding out the potential to disrupt production.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
30-day risk-free trial

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 8/24/06

Friday, August 25th, 2006

CramersMadMoney.comWe have done our best to record the calls for you, but remember that the shows are fast moving, and sometimes Cramer bangs on the sell! sell! sell!, bull roar, train wreck, suicide jump, hallelujah chorus, backing up truck, creepy house of pain voice, machine gun, fanfare, toilet flush, all aboard, applause, cash register, bear growl, bowling pins, and submarine diving alarm buttons all at once, while he is screaming.

Please do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the shows, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Bullish
Alcan (AL) (will rise in 3 months) (RealMoney Radio)
Although Merck (MRK) (RealMoney Radio)
Amgen (AMGN) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) ($55 target) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Arch Coal (ACI) (buy at $30) (RealMoney Radio)
Boeing (BA) (Lightning Round)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) (RealMoney Radio)
CA (CA) (RealMoney Radio)
Campbell’s Soup (CPB) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Chattem (CHTT) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Coca-Cola (KO) (RealMoney Radio)
Consolidated Edison (ED) (Lightning Round)
Corning (GLW) (buy on pullback) (RealMoney Radio)
Corning (GLW) (buy at $20, $25 target) (Lightning Round)
CSX (CSX) (RealMoney Radio)
Danone (DA) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Dynegy (DYN) (Lightning Round)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) ($40 target) (Lightning Round)
Honeywell (HON) (will rise in 3 months) (RealMoney Radio)
JC Penney (JCP) (RealMoney Radio)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) ($70 target) (RealMoney Radio)
Kellogg (K) ($55 target) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Kellogg (K) ($55 target) (RealMoney Radio)
Kellogg (K) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Kraft (KFT) (Lightning Round)
Lilly (LLY) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
MasterCard (MA) (Lightning Round)
Matrixx Initiatives (MTXX) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Merck (MRK) ($50 target) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Oracle (ORCL) (RealMoney Radio)
Peabody (BTU) (RealMoney Radio)
PepsiCo (PEP) ($70 target) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Perrigo (PRGO) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Procter & Gamble (PG) ($70 target) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Procter & Gamble (PG) (RealMoney Radio)
R.R. Donnelly (RRD) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Rayonier (RYN) (Lightning Round)
Southwestern Energy (SWN) (Lightning Round)
Tootsie Roll (TR) (mentioned on Mad Money)
TXU (TXU) (Lightning Round)
UST (UST) ($60 target) (RealMoney Radio)
Valero (VLO) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Weyerhaeuser (WY) (Lightning Round)
Yahoo! (YHOO) ($32 target) (Lightning Round)

Bearish
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) (buy if CEO leaves) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Caterpillar (CAT) (Lightning Round)
China Mobile (CHL) (RealMoney Radio)
Coldwater Creek (CWTR) (take profits) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Comtech (COGO) (Lightning Round)
Gymboree (GYMB) (take profits) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Hain Celestial (HAIN) (mentioned on Mad Money)
IBM (IBM) (RealMoney Radio)
JDSU (JDSU) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Juniper Networks (JNPR) (Lightning Round)
Lucent Technologies (LU) (Lightning Round)
Nordstrom (JWN) (RealMoney Radio)
Rediff.com India (REDF) (Lightning Round)
Sara Lee (SLE) (Lightning Round)
Shaw Group (SGR) (RealMoney Radio)
The Children’s Place (PLCE) (take profits) (mentioned on Mad Money)
Toll Brothers (TOL) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Williams Companies (WMB) (Lightning Round)
Wrigley (WWY) (mentioned on Mad Money)

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