Archive for November, 2005

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 11/30/05

Wednesday, November 30th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterInvestors received mixed news on inflation in the data that was otherwise positive on the economy. Stocks closed lower, but a fall in crude-oil prices, stabilizing long-term interest rates and upbeat economic data helped the market to solid November gains.

Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 82.29 points at 10,805.87, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 8 points to 1,249.48 and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended virtually unchanged, up 0.11 point at 2,232.82. For the month, the Dow Jones gained 3.5%, the S&P 500 gained 3.5% and the tech-rich index rose 5.3%.

The market breadth was nearly even on the New York Stock Exchange with the decliners gaining a 17 to 16 advantage over advancers in late-day on volume of 1.3 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by 17 to 12 on volume of 1.5 billion shares.

The Beige Book account of current economic conditions stated that the U.S. economy continues to expand, but at remarkably different rates across the country. The pace of growth was generally described as slow in the East, gradual in the Midwest and solid west of the Mississippi. There are little overall trends except a robust factory sector and many reports of a cooling residential housing market. Retail sales were generally positive except for auto sales. The best news was perhaps that hiring activity has increased in many Fed districts. On inflation, the Beige Book said price reports were mixed, with consumer price pressures flat or up modestly but also noting talk of “persistent input price pressures” as businesses passed along higher energy prices. Therefore, the Beige Book survey, failed to move the markets much as it shed little new light on economic conditions.

Among stock movers, Yahoo closed up $0.14 to $40.33, despite brokerage UBS downgrading it to “neutral” from “buy”. Yahoo was downgraded by Legg Mason on Monday, and rival Google Inc. saw a bearish note from Merrill Lynch on Tuesday. Is this an indication of overvaluation of these stocks?

General Motors was the biggest percentage decliner on the benchmark index, down 4.8% at $21.90. Research in Motion closed down $3.87 or 5.8% to $61.05, after a judge refused to enforce a controversial $450 million patent settlement between the BlackBerry maker and patent holding company NTP Inc.

Shares of TiVo Inc. shares ended up 3.9% at $5.38. Shares of Novellus Systems Inc. rose 2.45% to $24.67 as investors appeared to focus on the chip-equipment maker’s upbeat order outlook rather than its decision to cut the top end of its fourth-quarter revenue forecast.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery gained 82 cents to close at $57.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 11/29/05

Wednesday, November 30th, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comWe have done our best to record the calls for you, but remember that the show is fast moving, and sometimes Cramer bangs on the sell! sell! sell!, bull roar, train wreck, suicide jump, hallelujah chorus, backing up truck, creepy house of pain voice, machine gun, fanfare, toilet flush, all aboard, applause, cash register, bear growl, bowling pins, and submarine diving alarm buttons all at once, while he is screaming.

Please do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the show, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Bullish
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) ))))
ACE Cash Express (AACE)
Agilent Technologies (A)
Apple Computer (AAPL)
Becton, Dickinson (BDX) *
Best Buy (BBY) ))))
CACI International (CAI) *
Caterpillar (CAT)
Central European Media (CETV) *
Chico’s FAS (CHS)
Crown Castle (CCI) *
Darden Restaurants (DRI) ))))
Evergreen Solar (ESLR)
GameStop (GME) ))))
Goldman Sachs (GS) ))))
Google (GOOG)
Harrah’s Entertainment (HET) *
Legg Mason (LM)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Peabody Coal (BTU) ))))
PepsiCo (PEP)
Quidel (QDEL)
ResMed (RMD)
United Parcel Service (UPS)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
V.F. (VFC) ))))
VeriSign (VRSN)
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) ))))
Walt Disney (DIS)

Bearish
Aeropostale (ARO) ))))
American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) ))))
Andrx (ADRX)
bebe stores (BEBE)
Boston Scientific (BSX) *
Bottomline Technologies (EPAY)
Cablevision (CVC) ))))
Calpine (CPN) ))))
Comcast (CMCSA) ))))
DaVita (DVA)
Fiserv (FISV)
Foot Locker (FL) ))))
Merck (MRK)
Sears Holdings (SHLD) ))))
Spectranetics (SPNC) *
Time Warner (TWX) ))))
Wendy’s (WEN) ))))

All stocks called during Lightning Round on Mad Money TV show except:
* discussed on the Mad Money TV show
)))) discussed on the RealMoney Radio show

PRE-ORDER YOUR 2006 COMMODITY GUIDE - FREE This popular book from the creators of the Hightower Report normally retails for $20. Now, you can pre-order the 2006 guide, absolutely free.

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PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 11/29/05

Tuesday, November 29th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThe investors continued to backpedal after a five-week rally that pushed the major gauges to levels not seen since 2001. Stocks ended slightly lower after a raft of upbeat economic data offered only a temporary boost to the market. Many investors prefer to look ahead to the November employment report that is due at the end of the week.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 2.56 to 10,888.16, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 ended up 0.02 to 1,257.48, while the Nasdaq composite index closed down 6.70 or 0.3% to 2,232.71. A number of large technology and biotech shares slipped, weighing on the Nasdaq.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than 19 to 13 on volume of 1.60 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers edged decliners by 15 to 14 as 1.78 billion shares changed hands.

Wednesday brings a slew of economic news, including the read on gross domestic product growth. The GDP is expected to have grown at a 4.1% annual rate versus an initial read of 3.8%. GDP grew at a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter. New home sales jumped 13% to a record 1.42 million annual rate, well above forecasts. A key index of consumer confidence rose to 98.9 in November, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, topping forecasts for a rise to 90, with consumers reacting to lower energy prices.

A number of chipmakers were weaker, including Nvidia that closed down $2.40 to $35.48, Google closed down $19.94 to $403.54, Yahoo closed down $0.92 to $40.19, and eBay slipped down too. Advanced Micro Devices closed down $0.91 to $25.58, on a report showing that its flash-memory unit will post a quarterly loss. Wal-Mart closed down $0.99 or 2% to $49.01, amongst a number of retailers that declined. The retailer stated that its November same-store sales results are 4.3% higher than a year ago. These results, do not include Sunday’s sales. Shares of Calpine slumped 57% to 54 cents after the company announced the departure of its founder Peter Cartwright from the chairman, president and CEO positions.

Merck closed up $0.46 or 1.6% to $30.02, bouncing back after yesterday’s sell off. PepsiCo Inc. said 2005 earnings should range between $2.38 and $2.39 a share, with core earnings between $2.64 and $2.65 a share. This made the stock rise 15 cents to $59.77.

Downgrading of BellSouth Corp. and Qwest Communications International Inc led to pressure on these stocks. BellSouth Corp closed down 22 cents at $27.62, while Qwest shares fell as much as 3.7% to $5 before trimming losses to end down just 2 cents at $5.17.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell 86 cents to settle at $56.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after slumping more than 2 percent Monday.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 11/28/05

Tuesday, November 29th, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comWe have done our best to record the calls for you, but remember that the show is fast moving, and sometimes Cramer bangs on the sell! sell! sell!, bull roar, train wreck, suicide jump, hallelujah chorus, backing up truck, creepy house of pain voice, machine gun, fanfare, toilet flush, all aboard, applause, cash register, bear growl, bowling pins, and submarine diving alarm buttons all at once, while he is screaming.

Please do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the show, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Bullish
Airgas (ARG) *
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) ))))
Ameritrade (AMTD)
Amgen (AMGN)
BEA Systems’ (BEAS) ))))
Broadcom (BRCM)
Brown & Brown (BRO)
Centene (CNC) ))))
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Commerce Bancorp (CBH)
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
FormFactor (FORM) *
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MTU) *
National City (NCC)
NitroMed (NTMD)
NitroMed (NTMD) ))))
OraSure Technologies (OSUR) *
PetroQuest Energy (PQUE)
Pixar (PIXR)
Powerwave Technologies (PWAV)
PPG Industries (PPG)
Quiksilver (ZQK) ))))
Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) *
Toyota Motor (TM) *
Urban Outfitters (URBN) ))))
VeriSign (VRSN) ))))
Websense (WBSN) *
Yahoo! (YHOO) ))))

Bearish
Atmel (ATML)
Cell Genesys (CEGE)
Checkpoint Systems (CKP)
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Equitable Resources (EQT)
Isonics (ISON) ))))
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)
Nortel (NT) ))))
Research In Motion (RIMM)
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Symantec (SYMC) *
True Religion Apparel (TRLG) ))))
Under Armour (UARM)
World Fuel Services (INT)

All stocks called during Lightning Round on Mad Money TV show except:
* discussed on the Mad Money TV show
)))) discussed on the RealMoney Radio show

PRE-ORDER YOUR 2006 COMMODITY GUIDE - FREE This popular book from the creators of the Hightower Report normally retails for $20. Now, you can pre-order the 2006 guide, absolutely free.

Having trouble writing down all of Cramer’s picks? Free daily recap newsletter to your inbox

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 11/28/05

Monday, November 28th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThe Cyber Monday saw the stocks tumble as investors bailed out of tech, energy and a variety of other stocks after a five-week market rally. .The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indices snapped a seven-session run of gains as some investors chose to lock in profits after a six-week rally.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 40.90 or 0.4% to 10,890.72, the Standard & Poor’s 500 ended down 10.79 or 0.8% to 1,257.46, and the Nasdaq composite finished down 22.88 or 1% to 2,239.37. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq posted their biggest one-day drop in a month. The declines today have followed a more than five-week advance that had pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to four-and-a-half-year highs and the Dow 30 to just below four-and-a-half-year highs.

The market breadth was negative and volume was moderate. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners two to one on volume of 1.49 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by seven to three on volume of 1.58 billion shares.

About Black Friday, the National Retail Federation has reported a 22% year-over-year increase in sales, with electronics goods a popular purchase. Credit giant Visa also stated that spending on branded debit and credit cards for Friday and Saturday jumped 15% over year-ago levels. However, ShopperTrak said sales on the Friday slipped 0.9%.

Tomorrow, a bevy of economic reports, including reads on durable goods orders and new home sales may make a difference to the market perspective. However, the biggest potential market mover would be the November consumer confidence report from the Conference Board.

Losers today included Exxon Mobil that closed down $1.37 to $58.74, Amerada Hess finished down $8.52 to $122.71, and the Amex Oil index fell 3.7%. The Dow Jones Home Construction index too closed down $34.97 or 3.6% to $926.96. The biggest loser was Merck that closed down $1.42 or 4.6% to $29.56, after announcing that as part of a cost-saving plan, it is cutting 11% of its workforce (over 7000 jobs) and closing or selling five of its 31 plants.

Amongst gainers, McDonald’s gained $0.49 to $33.95, General Motors closed up $0.36 or 2% to $23.22, after auto-parts maker Delphi said it was making progress in its labor negotiations with its auto workers union. Shares in SBC Communications closed up $0.31 to $25.08.

Canadian oil and gas producers Harvest Energy Trust and Viking Energy Royalty agreed to merge, creating a company with an initial enterprise value exceeding $4 billion. Harvest Energy shares were off $1.04 at $30.18. Newmont Mining said it might launch a rival bid for Placer Dome. Newmont’s stock rose 62 cents to $47.68 while Placer Dome climbed 8 cents to $22.03. American Pharmaceutical Partners said it reached agreement to buy its largest shareholder, closely held American BioScience Inc., in a multibillion dollar deal. The stock tumbled as much as 17.6% to $39.25.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.35 to settle at $57.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 11/25/05

Saturday, November 26th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterDuring the short session after the Thanksgiving holiday on ‘Black Friday’, the stocks managed to extend the recent rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached fresh 4 1/2-year highs and retailers like Wal-Mart Stores and Best Buy got into focus as the Christmas shopping season got underway. Today, the market closed at 1 p.m. Commodities markets were closed, but stocks, foreign exchange, and Treasury’s markets were open.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 15.53 to 10,931.62, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index finished up 2.64 to 1,268.25, and the Nasdaq composite ended up 3.03 to 2,263.01. All three indices rose modestly, with the S&P 500 the biggest gainer. marking an eight-month high. For the holiday shortened week, the Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched up 1.6% gains.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers 18 to 12 on volume of 540 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers edged decliners with 14 advancing shares for every 13 declining stocks on volume of 680 million shares.

Retail sales were the focus of the day. The day after Thanksgiving, known as “Black Friday,” is traditionally seen as an important barometer for the strength of the holiday-shopping season. period.

Among the movers, electronics retailers Best Buy closed up $1.63 or 3% to $50.63, Circuit City finished up $0.51 to $21.38, and Apple (the maker of popular iPod) closed up $2.23 to $69.34. Among other retailers, Target Corp. rose 13 cents to $55.23, Kohl’s Corp. ended up 13 cents at $49.20 as Sears Holdings Corp. dropped $2.45 to $118.71.

Another big news was the delisting notice to Taser International by Nasdaq because its third-quarter report is delayed. The stock fell more than 12% to $6.48.

The recent rally could also be a cause of worry t the Bulls. Short sellers have also come out in full force lately. According to data from the New York Stock Exchange, short interest, or the number of shares that have been borrowed and sold short, hit a record for the second consecutive month. Short interest rose nearly 2% in November to 8.81 billion shares. This could also be a way for professional investors to hedge their bets, and so not necessarily a bullish or bearish sign.

After ‘Black Friday’ is the ‘Cyber Monday’. Americans are expected to spend one-third more online this year during Thanksgiving weekend, and much of that spending is expected to come Monday, which is called “Cyber Monday,” the day people get back to work, get on their fast computers and do their shopping. On Monday, 43% of online retailers plan to offer special promotions ranging from free shipping to free gifts to discounts. The Party has started - has it???????.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 11/23/05

Thursday, November 24th, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comWe have done our best to record the calls for you, but remember that the show is fast moving, and sometimes Cramer bangs on the sell! sell! sell!, bull roar, train wreck, suicide jump, hallelujah chorus, backing up truck, creepy house of pain voice, machine gun, fanfare, toilet flush, all aboard, applause, cash register, bear growl, bowling pins, and submarine diving alarm buttons all at once, while he is screaming.

Please do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the show, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Bullish
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) ))))
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) ))))
American Express (AXP) ))))
Ameritrade (AMTD) ))))
Amgen (AMGN) ))))
Apple Computer (AAPL)
Autodesk (ADSK) ))))
Bancolombia (CIB) ))))
Best Buy (BBY) *
Boyd Gaming (BYD) ))))
Cendant (CD) ))))
Education Management (EDMC) *
Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) ))))
First Marblehead (FMD) ))))
GameStop (GME) *
General Maritime (GMR)
Google (GOOG) ))))
Harrah’s Entertainment (HET) ))))
Headwaters (HW)
IBM (IBM)
Intel (INTC) ))))
ITT Educational Services (ESI) *
J.C. Penney (JCP)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Lucent Technologies (LU)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft (MSFT) ))))
NitroMed (NTMD)
NitroMed (NTMD) ))))
Syneron Medical (ELOS)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)
TALX (TALX) *
Thermo Electron (TMO) ))))
TurboChef Technologies (OVEN) ))))
Union Pacific (UNP)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) ))))
VeriSign (VRSN) ))))
Viacom (VIA) ))))
Walt Disney (DIS) ))))
Weyerhaeuser (WY)
Whole Foods Market (WFMI)

Bearish
Alcon (ACL)
Apollo Group (APOL) *
ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG)
Bankrate (RATE) *
Career Education (CECO) *
Corinthian Colleges (COCO) *
eBay (EBAY)
Frontline (FRO)
Gasco Energy (GSX)
i2 Technologies (ITWO)
J2 Global Communications (JCOM) *
Jarden (JAH) ))))
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) *
Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO)
Merck (MRK)
ServiceMaster (SVM)
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) ))))
USG (USG)

All stocks called during Lightning Round on Mad Money TV show except:
* discussed on the Mad Money TV show
)))) discussed on the RealMoney Radio show

Free eBooklet “Insider Tip’s To Navigating the Financial Markets” brought to you by DTI Partners Inc.

Having trouble writing down all of Cramer’s picks? Free daily recap newsletter to your inbox

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 11/23/05

Thursday, November 24th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterStocks closed sharply higher today in a pre-holiday rally, boosted by a fall in oil prices linked to higher energy stockpiles and a rise in shares of McDonald’s on hopes for strong sales of its new holiday gift cards. Even after such a big run-up, market analysts feel that the stock advance could continue through December.

Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 44.66 or 0.4% to 10,916.09, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index closed up 4.38 or 0.3% to 1,265.61, while the Nasdaq composite index finished up 6.42 or 0.3% to 2,259.98. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed at fresh four-and-a-year highs.

The market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than 19 to 13 as 1.45 billion shares changed hands. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by 15 to 14 on volume of 1.62 billion shares. Considering a shorter trading session, volume on Friday will likely be light, with many Wall Street professionals opting to take a four-day weekend. However, the day is of great significance to the retail sector, as everyone looks to gauge the strength of Black Friday, which marks the start of the holiday shopping period.

Twenty-three of the 30 Dow issues advanced, with McDonald’s closing up 2.2% at $33.71 after the company launched a major U.S. media blitz for its Arch Card, its latest twist on gift certificates. The other big gainers on the Dow were Intel that closed up $0.48 to $26.64, Pfizer finished up $0.26 to $21.64, JP Morgan ended up $0.58 to $38.78, and American Express closed up $0.65 to $52.40. Other gainers included telecom and networking shares, including Ciena up $0.08 to $2.80, Motorola closed up $0.62 to $24.62, and Lucent technologies finished up $0.07 to $2.97.

Steel stocks were the flavor of the day and in demand due to talk of further sector consolidation after French steelmaker Arcelor SA said it plans to launch a C$4.3 billion hostile bid for Canada’s Dofasco Inc. his indirectly gave a boost to U.S. Steel that closed up $1.00 to $40.77, and AK Steel Holding Corp that closed up $0.58 to $8.03.

Amongst losers, shares of Research in Motion slid down $0.80 to $66.28, after the maker of the BlackBerry wireless device cut its subscriber outlook for the rest of the fiscal year. Alexion Pharmaceuticals closed down $8.03 or 275 to $21.53, after saying that a late-stage trial of its heart drug failed to cut heart attacks by a significant amount. Petco dropped 9% to $21.20, and Calpine fell 15.1% to $1.18.

The pending merger between the New York Stock Exchange and Archipelago Holdings has been deemed deal fair to NYSE members, according to an independent analysis. Based on the deal’s 70-30 split, with 30% going to Archipelago shareholders, the combined company would be worth $8.88 billion.

Investors reacted positively to news from the Energy Department of a weekly increase of 1.1 million barrels in distillates inventories, alongside a 400,000-barrel rise in the nation’s crude stocks and a 200,000-barrel expansion in gasoline supplies. U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell 13 cents to settle at $58.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas futures closed higher and the front-month contract was up 0.6 cent at $11.62 per million BTU.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Cramer’s Mad Money Daily Recap 11/22/05

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comWe have done our best to record the calls for you, but remember that the show is fast moving, and sometimes Cramer bangs on the sell! sell! sell!, bull roar, train wreck, suicide jump, hallelujah chorus, backing up truck, creepy house of pain voice, machine gun, fanfare, toilet flush, all aboard, applause, cash register, bear growl, bowling pins, and submarine diving alarm buttons all at once, while he is screaming.

Please do your own research, and verify all information before acting on it. This summary of Cramer’s picks is not intended to replace watching the show, where his comments about the stocks often include advice about entry and exit points.

Bullish
Activision (ATVI)
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) ))))
Altria (MO)
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) *
Cendant (CD)
Chico’s FAS (CHS) *
Coldwater Creek (CWTR) *
Commerce Bancorp (CBH)
Conexant (CNXT) *
GameStop (GME) ))))
Google (GOOG)
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) *
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) ))))
Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) ))))
Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN) *
Schering-Plough (SGP) ))))
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)
Syneron Medical (ELOS)
Talbots (TLB) *
Thornburg Mortgage (TMA)
Tiffany (TIF)
Under Armour (UARM) ))))
Wells Fargo (WFC)

Bearish
Charter Communications (CHTR) *
China Medical Technologies (CMED)
Cree (CREE)
Gateway (GTW)
J. Jill (JILL) *
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD)
Laserscope (LSCP)
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX)
Pfizer (PFE)
RF Micro Devices (RFMD)
SanDisk (SNDK) ))))
Spinnaker Exploration (SKE)
Talisman Energy (TLM)

All stocks called during Lightning Round on Mad Money TV show except:
* discussed on the Mad Money TV show
)))) discussed on the RealMoney Radio show

“The top performer in 2004 is Fredhager.com, up 150.3 percent….also the second-performing letter in 2003, up 119.8 percent.”
– Peter Brimelow, CBSmarketwatch

Having trouble writing down all of Cramer’s picks? Free daily recap newsletter to your inbox

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 11/22/05

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2005

PortfolioCrafterStocks closed sharply higher today with the Federal Reserve appearing to have given investors something to be thankful for: a strong hint that its 16-month campaign of raising interest rates may finally be nearing an end. The National Retail Federation also revised its sales forecast to project growth of 6%, up from its prediction of 5% two months ago.

Over the past three weeks, the major averages have carved out notable new highs. However, for the longer-term investor, there’s a real question as to where you set the reference point. It is worth noting that the sector-specific backdrop is favorable as this rally is supported by both financials and technology. The markets remain near-term overbought and therefore, the near-term risk/reward on new positions isn’t great at current levels. A longer-term investor would do better to be long in this market.

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 51.15 points at 10,871.43, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed up 6.38 points at 1,261.23, and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended 11.89 points higher at 2,253.56. Once again the S&P and the Nasdaq marked fresh four-and-a-half year highs.

Market breath was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, there were 19 rising shares for every 13 falling in a volume of over 1.67 billion shares. On the Nasdaq market, there were more than 1.88 billion shares traded with 16 shares gaining for every 13 losers.

Amongst the gainers, Micron closed 3.3% higher at $14.67 on news about upgradation by Merrill Lynch. Intel ended up 3.5% higher at $26.15 as a reaction to the flash memory joint venture with micron. Shares of the Altria Group rose 2.1% to $73.12 and Wal-Mart Stores increased 1.1% to $50.20. H.J. Heinz Co. rose 1.7% to $35.68, after reporting a net income of $203.8 million, for the second quarter. Stock of Deere & Co. rose almost 7% to $67.40, despite weaker fourth-quarter profit and sales.

In its continuing woes, General Motors closed down $0.31 or 1% to $23.27, after announcing the restructuring plans. Cooper Companies also closed down $13.32 or over 20% to $51.50, after warning that fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and earnings would miss forecasts due to weak sales. Another big loser was Calpine Corp that dropped almost 21% to $1.39, after a Delaware judge ruled that it cannot use $395 million from the sale this year of oil and gas fields to buy natural gas to run its power plants.

All that glitters appears to be Gold. Gold futures continued their bull run bringing the front-month contract to within $4 of the key $500 an ounce level, on continued robust physical demand and fears of inflation. The precious-metals rally is being driven by institutional and hedge-fund buying.

U.S. crude oil for January delivery closed at $58.84 a barrel, up $1.14 from yesterday’s close.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter