Archive for August, 2005

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/25/05

Thursday, August 25th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterAlthough investors are still worried about the high price of oil, U.S. stocks finished session slightly higher. Crude oil closed at $67.49, which shows an increase of 0.3 percent The Dow rose 15.76 points, to close at 10,450.63. Besides, the Nasdaq closed at 2,134.37, after climbing 5.46 points. Meanwhile, the S&P rose 2.78 points, after increasing 2.78 points.

Citigroup Inc. increased 22 cents, to close at $43.27. According to news, the world’s biggest financial –services firm may sell Legg Mason Inc.’s capital market units to Stifel Financial Corp. However, none of the executives at Citigroup have accepted to comment on the issue. Among other winners in the U.S. stock market, Best Buy Company added $1.31 to close at $46.75. Besides, Lowe’s Cos., the second home-improvement retailer, advanced $1.32 to close at $64.19.

General Motors Corp. added 2006 models to its offer of employee discounts for all customers, in addition to extending the program through September. Because of losses caused by GM’s auto discounts, Moody’s Investors Service reduced the company’s credit rating to high-risk, high yield junk yesterday. Now, the new discounts may increase pressure on Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler to continue with their own promotions. The two automakers companies may add more 2006 models or risk losing market share to General Motors. GM shares decreased 18 cents, to close at $34.09.

Shares of Six Flags Inc. rallied 11 percent, or 72 cents, to close at $7.26. The company, which is second in attendance after Walt Disney Co. parks, operates a total of 28 amusement parks in the U.S. that had fallen in share prices from a high of about $40 per share in mid-1999 to less than $5 a share. After news of the selling of Six Flags, Bear Stearns Co. raised shares of Six Flags to outperform from peer perform.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Mad Money Recap 8/24/05 - Cubic for a trade

Wednesday, August 24th, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comCubic (CUB), which makes systems for defense and public transportation, stands to profit from the last month’s London subway bombings.

New York City announced it will install 1,000 video cameras and 300 motion sensors in its subways for security. Lockheed Martin (LMT), the lead contractor for the program, is too large a company to see much of an impact from the $212 million contract, Cramer said.

Subcontractors such as Cubic are small enough that they could see some benefit.

Buy Cubic’s stock as a trade using limit orders to purchase the stock close to its closing price of $18.40.

Cramer endorsed L-3 Communications (LLL) as more of an investment in security.

Military base closings

Lennar (LEN), a homebuilder, has had success turning one closed military base into homes, but the general investment environment toward homebuilders isn’t favorable enough to endorse any homebuilder’s stock.

Sell yourself

Symbol Technologies’ (SBL) is too oversold at $8, but the company is floundering without its former leader, Bill Nuti, now the CEO of NCR (NCR). “The smartest thing the company could do is put itself up for sale.”

Going Upscale

With only 88 restaurants, Cramer thinks Ruth’s Chris Steak House has room to expand to 170.

Ruth’s Chris Steak House (RUTH) closed Wednesday just over $19. “I think it’s a bargain here.”

Ruth’s stock traded down today in because of Applebee’s (APPB), after they issued disappointing guidance yesterday evening.

A caller asked when Cramer thought low-end retailers and restaurants would be right to buy. “Those stocks will not fall back into favor until we have a recession,” said Cramer.

People graduating from beer

Cramer said people have graduated to mixed drinks and to scotch, whiskey and high-end vodkas.

Two stocks that can benefit are Brown-Forman (BF.B) and Fortune Brands (FO). “BFB has already moved. I think Fortune Brands has a move in the future.”

Oil to $100?

Ultra Petroleum (UPL) CEO Michael Watford was asked if oil was going to $100 a barrel.

“I don’t think it will go to $100, but we firmly believe prices are going to be higher for longer,” said Watford.

Watford added that China is seeing no slowdown in demand. People are still lining up for gas there, he said.

Cramer said he still likes oil and gas stocks like Ultra, but, he recommended you take profits if you have them.

“Please don’t be greedy. Don’t be a hog!”

After-the-Close

Dave & Buster’s (DAB) issued a “gigantic guidedown.”

York (YRK) “got the nice bid.”

“Good work by Johnson Controls (JCI).”

Lightning Round

Bullish - GameStop (GME), Syneron Medical (ELOS), Bunge Limited (BG), Internet Security Systems (ISSX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), RF Micro Devices (RFMD), WebEx Communications (WEBX), IntraLase (ILSE), MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), Netflix (NFLX), Countrywide Financial (CFC) and Sprint Nextel (S).

Bearish - Pfizer (PFE), Toll Brothers (TOL), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Ford Motor (F), Senomyx (SNMX), Nextel Partners (NXTP), Spectrum Brands (SPC), Blue Coat Systems (BCSI), Taser (TASR), Allstate (ALL), LifeCell (LIFC), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), ValueClick (VCLK), Peabody Energy (BTU), PetMed Express (PETS), Boston Beer (SAM), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Gap (GPS) and Tekelec (TKLC).

CramersMadMoney.com
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Dan Zanger - Zanger Report - VLO - 8/24/05

Wednesday, August 24th, 2005

Fiasco Trade of the DayMore exclusive trading recommendations from world record-holder Dan Zanger and The Zanger Report - free 3-week trial. (No credit card needed.)

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PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/24/05

Wednesday, August 24th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday, U.S stocks fall due to a high increase in the price of oil. Crude for October delivery rose $1.61, or 2.5 percent, to finish at $67.32 per barrel. The Dow fell again 84.71 points, to close at 10,434.87. Besides, the Nasdaq and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq closed at 2,128.91, after falling 8.34 points, while the S&P fell 8 points as well, to close at 1,209.59.

Among Dow components, General Motors Corp. rallied 2.2 percent to finish session at $34.27. This increase in price was caused by a report in the Wall Street Journal that said that the United Workers Union is “considering helping the world’s first automobile maker cut costs.” Investors seem satisfied with the Union’s willingness to help out in decreasing costs. Besides, Merck & Co. rose 0.9 percent to close at $27.83 in a modest rebound, even after the company had big losses related to its drug Vioxx.

According to the Commerce Department, the jump in oil outweighed the gain in new home sales, which increased to a record 1.41 million annual rate in July. It also reported that durable goods fell 4.9 percent in July, which shows the biggest decrease in 18 months.

Today, President George W. Bush said that the U.S. is achieving its “strategic objectives” in Iraq. Bush is highly criticized because he does not set a deadline yet for a withdrawal of troops in Iraq. But, the Pentagon said that the troops in Iraq would give security during the October 15 vote on the Constitution and National elections in December. President Bush finally said that U.S. troops would only withdraw when Iraqi security forces can guarantee peace in Iraq.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Mad Money Recap 8/23/05 - Christmas Shopping

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comBuy Texas Instruments (TXN), Corning (GLW) and Trident Microsystems (TRID) to take advantage of the coming growth in sales of high-end TV sets, which are sure to be hot items this holiday season, Jim Cramer said Tuesday on “Mad Money.”

Prices are coming down significantly, Cramer said, for digital light processor and liquid-crystal display TV sets. Falling prices, Cramer said, are sure to spur demand.

Don’t buy the stocks of the TV manufacturers such as Sony (SNE) and Samsung or Dell (DELL), as these companies’ margins will be squeezed by falling prices, Cramer said.

Buy their suppliers: Texas Instruments, Corning and Trident. Of the three, Corning is Cramer’s favorite.

If you wait until Christmas, you’re going to miss the trade. Sony, Samsung and other companies are placing orders now in order to make Wal-Mart’s (WMT) and Best Buy’s (BBY) holiday season.

A caller asked if the TV manufacturers could squeeze their suppliers in order to get lower prices. Cramer said this is not likely because there are not enough suppliers. Texas Instruments, for example, is the only supplier for DLP TV technology.

Another caller asked if TVs were going to be such hot sellers at Christmas, should he buy Best Buy?

Cramer said Best Buy still “has more downside. I want to wait until September before I pull the trigger on that one.”

Latin American bull market

“You need to be loco on investing in Latin America,” said Cramer. “You need to be where the bull market is.”

Cramer, bullish on BanColombia (CIB), also recommended Banco Bradesco (BBD), just for a trade.

Cramer has had poor results investing in Latin America and that he thinks “Latin America will implode sooner or later. But, for now, I like these stocks. I think they’re going up.”

Once the stocks go up, you should “ring the register.”

Asked if there were countries in which Cramer would avoid investing, he responded that he would be wary of China.

“I have never lost money as fast as I have in Chinese IPOs and Chinese banks,” he said. “They still like sticking it to capitalists, and they’ll stick it to you.”

Secondary businesses to buy for

Cramer identified stocks that he was bullish on for their company’s secondary businesses.

Cramer was bullish on McDonald’s (MCD) because of its fast-food Mexican restaurant, Chipotle.

Cramer was also bullish on Chico’s (CHS) because of its White House Black Market stores, growing at an annualized rate of 67%.

Cramer recommended waiting to buy Chico until Thursday after the company reports earnings.

Finally, Cramer was bullish on Men’s Wearhouse (MW), because of its K&G Stores and Urban Outfitters (URBN).

Wait for a pullback before buying Urban Outfitters. “Long term, (Urban Outfitters) is the retailer you must own.”

Lightning Round

Bullish - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Schering-Plough (SGP), Eli Lilly (LLY), Yahoo! (YHOO), Whole Foods Market (WFMI), Duke Energy (DUK), ev3 (EVVV), PetroChina (PTR), TurboChef Technologies (OVEN), ATI Technologies (ATYT), Dress Barn (DBRN), Entergy (ETR), Terex (TEX), First Marblehead (FMD), Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), Coach (COH), Marvell Technology Group (MRVL), Caterpillar (CAT) and Motorola (MOT).

Bearish - Campbell Soup (CPB), Sara Lee (SLE), ConAgra Foods (CAG), TiVo (TIVO), BEA Systems (BEAS), Overstock.com (OSTK), Kroger (KR), Fossil (FOSL), StemCells (STEM), Baidu.com (BIDU), CarMax (KMX), Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), Elan (ELN), Norfolk Southern (NSC), UST (UST), Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM), Phoenix (PNX) and AmeriCredit (ACF).

CramersMadMoney.com
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PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/23/05

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday, U.S. stocks declined in prices, due to an increase in the price of oil, and a major concern from investors about the slowdown of U.S. home resales. The Dow fell 50.31 points, to close at 10,519.58. Also, the Nasdaq and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq fell 4.16 points, to close at 2,137.25, while the S&P closed at 1,217.59, after falling 4.14 points.

Today, the National Association of Realtors announced that sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell 2.6 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.16 million, which represents the third-highest level ever. Also, July resales were up 4.7 percent from July 2004. Although the report shows that the housing sector is still booming, it fell short of analysts’ expectations of 7.29 million. Among other news, inventories of homes for sale rose 2.6 percent in July to 2.751 million, which is a 4.6 month supply at the current sales pace. That is the largest month-supply since November 2003.

Among Dow components, shares of Citigroup fell 1.5 percent after Marge Magner announced that she would step down from the company at the end of September to change to the media or entertainment industries. Also, Intel closed almost 1.3 percent lower, after the chipmaker’s exectuvive Paul Otellini announced that the company plans to release three new dual-core chips during the second half of 2006. These chips will be used to power desktops PCs, laptops and corporate servers.

However, the worst performer in the Dow was Alcoa Inc., the world’s largest aluminum producer, which slid 68 cents, or 2.4 percent, to close at $27.68. Also, U.S. Steel Corp., the first steelmaker, fell $1.42, or 3.4 percent, to close at $40.31.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Mad Money Recap 8/22/05 - Corn is Next Oil

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comArcher Daniels Midland (ADM) is considering investing in production capacity to produce corn-based plastics.

“We can make plastic out of corn. We should make plastic out of corn, and we will make plastic out of corn. You must own the stock of Archer Daniels Midland.”

Cramer said with oil at $60 the time is for corn-based products like ethanol to become viable in the marketplace is now.

Cramer said natural gas was the safest energy play at this point - it should play catch-up to oil.

Dover (DOV) announced it is buying microacoustic component manufacturer Knowles Electronics, which makes products that go into hearing aids and cell phones.

A caller asked if Dover’s acquisition of Knowles might look similar to Tyco (TYC) before it collapsed. Cramer said the difference is in the two companies’ managements.

“Dover’s is good,” he said. ” Tyco’s was bad. That’s all that matters.”

After the Bell

WPT Enterprises (WPTE) reported quarterly results that were simply the “ultimate in train wrecks.”

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) announced good clinical trial results for its diabetes drug, Byetta.

Cramer recommended that if you first bought Amylin when he first recommended it at the $17 level, sell half the position now because we don’t believe in being “hogs.”

Lions Gate

Former chief investment officer for Carl Icahn, Mark Rachesky, has taken a 7.3% position in Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF).

“I think [Lions Gate] should be worth 30% more than its current quote.”

Cramer said the time to buy tech is now.

“Tech in the fourth quarter has always been good. If you’re waiting for tech, you will miss the Marvell…the Intel…the Microsoft.”

Lightning Round

Bullish - eBay (EBAY), Yahoo! (YHOO), Google (GOOG), Starbucks (SBUX), XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Cimarex Energy (XEC), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), General Dynamics (GD), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), L-3 Communications (LLL), Vodafone Group (VOD), Eaton (ETN), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group (MTF), Time Warner (TWX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Broadcom (BRCM), Mills (MLS), Motorola (MOT), FX Energy (FXEN), Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELP), Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Wachovia (WB), Dominion Resources (D), Duke Energy (DUK), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Honeywell International (HON), Principal Financial Group (PFG), MetLife (MET) and Prudential Financial (PRU).

Bearish - Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Armor Holdings (AH), BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), D.R. Horton (DHI), MedImmune (MEDI), Avaya (AV), Universal Display (PANL), Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group (FBR), Hansen Natural (HANS), PortalPlayer (PLAY), CMGI (CMGI), Tessera Technologies (TSRA), SunTrust Banks (STI), Indentix (IDNX), Lexmark International (LXK) and Delphi (DPH).

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Wall Street Traders Column 8/22/05 - Buy NVDA

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

WSTraders.comBuy Alert - VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS VRTX-Nasdaq - Technical Viewpoint: From a low of $13.64 on Jun 15, 2005 prices rallied, reaching a high of $18.14 on Jul 21, 2005. A decline saw prices pull back, reaching a low of $15.33 on Aug 4, 2005. Another rally saw prices penetrate resistance line “A”, closing 8/19/05 at $18.80. Technicals: MACD Histogram (MACD-H): A Buy Alert! was given on Aug 19, 2005 when the Histogram crossed the “0″ line to the upside. Support: Remains at $16.25. Resistance: Is at None at current levels. Point & Figure: Reversed to the upside on Aug 12, 2005. A P&F downside reversal takes place at $17.50. Summary: Technical indicators have turned bullish. BUY! VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS (VRTX-Nasdaq) @ $19.25 Stop: Use a protective stop of $17.75. VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS is currently trading @ $18.80 plus $2.43 on Aug 19, 2005. Price Objective: $27.50. Risk/Reward: $1.50 VS. $8.25. Today’s Risk Reward Ratio: 5:1

View current report with technical chart analysis

PortfolioCrafter - Market Commentary 8/22/05

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

PortfolioCrafterIt was a day of gains, and positive economic news for the U.S. stock market. The Dow rose 10.66 points, to close at 10,569.89. Besides, the Nasdaq rose 5.85 points, to close at 2,141.41. Meanwhile, the S&P closed at 1,221.73, after rising 2.02 points.

China National Petroleum Corp., the biggest Chinese oil company, agreed to buy PetroKazakhstan Inc. for $4.18 billion. However, according to Chairman Subir Raha India’s Oil & Natural Gas Corp. will make a new bid if asked to do so by PetroKazakhstan. But, PetroKazakhstan would need to pay a $125 million breakup fee to drop the agreement with China National. Shares of PetroKazakhstan jumped C$9.68, or 18 percent, to close at C$64.58 ($53.74) in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The stock has climbed 45 percent this year. The deal represents China’s largest overseas acquisition in recent years.

Among other acquisition news, Maytag Corp. accepted a $1.68 billion offer from Whirlpool Corp. Maytag announced that it paid a $40 million fee to a group led by New York buyout firm Ripplewood, in order to end their $1.12 billion agreement. The combination would help Whirlpool to decrease costs and compete with lower-priced Asian manufacturers such as Seoul, South Korea-based LG Electronics Inc., as its sales growth slows down.

A gauge of semiconductors companies, rallied 1.5 percent for the biggest gain among 24 industry groups in the S&P. Texas Instruments Inc. added 79 cents to close at $31.95. Besides, Intel Corp., the world’s number one computer chip-maker, increased 41 cents, to close at $26.06, and Research in Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry e-mail pager, climbed $4.21 to close at $77.49.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Mad Money Recap 8/19/05 - Merck-y Waters

Friday, August 19th, 2005

CramersMadMoney.comThe $253 million verdict against Merck (MRK) is the first of thousands of lawsuits against Merck regarding its once-popular painkiller, Vioxx. “I believe that for the near term, you can expect Merck (MRK) to visit its 52-week low.”

Marvell is marvellous

Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported a very good quarter Thursday. “I hope you own it, because I think the stock is going up.”

Marvell Marvell Technology (MRVL) makes chips that go into Apple’s (AAPL) iPod, Sony’s (SNE) portable PlayStation, Sony’s PlayStation 3, Microsoft’s (MSFT) new Xbox, and also VoIP products, printers, PDAs, cellular phones, and wireless networking.

“It looks a lot like Broadcom (BRCM), and that stock hasn’t been disappointing lately.”

Marvell trades at a higher multiple then Intel (INTC) or Texas Instruments (TXN), but it has proprietary products and so it is worth more.

Video-game retailer GameStop (GME) is acquiring Electronic Boutique (ELBO), making this “the single-best way to play the video game product cycle.”

A caller asked if there were any stocks, which despite bad earnings reports, Cramer liked. Cramer said he likes Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW), and that they “are going to be really buyable come September.”

Lightning Round

Bullish - Motorola (MOT), McAfee (MFE), Volcom (VLCM), Apple Computer (AAPL), Pall (PLL), KeySpan (KSE), Genentech (DNA), i2 Technologies (ITWO), Ingersoll-Rand (IR), Prudential Finanacial (PRU), MetLife (MET), Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX), eBay (EBAY), Yahoo! (YHOO), Google (GOOG), Carter’s (CRI), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Quest Diagnostics (DGX) and BE Aerospace (BEAV).

Bearish - ConAgra Foods (CAG), Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG), Building Materials Holding (BMHC), Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX), First American (FAF), Foundation Coal (FCL), Rambus (RMBS), bebe stores (BEBE), Forward Industries (FORD), Nvidia (NVDA), Protein Design Labs (PDLI), Toyota Motor ( TM), Medarex (MEDX), Blockbuster (BBI), Siebel Systems (SEBL), Dell (DELL) and Forest Oil (FST).

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