Archive for June, 2005

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/30/05

Thursday, June 30th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday, the market reacted badly to the increase of rates from the Fed. The Dow fell 99.51 points, to close at 10,274.97. Also, both the Nasdaq and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq closed at 2,056.96, after falling 11.93 points. Meanwhile, the S&P closed at 1,191.33, after falling 8.52 points. This drop in the market was due to an expected boost in the Fed’s target for short-term interest rates, and signals that further hikes will exist later.

The Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate a quarter of a point to 3.25 percent and restated a plan keep increasing rates at a “measured” pace. This decision suggests that central bankers are concerned that long term interest rates outside their direct control are still hurting the economy. Therefore, banks need to raise the overnight bank lending rate to decrease inflation. Today’s rate increase, which is the ninth straight, brought the Fed’s target to the highest since June 2001.

Bank of America Corp. agreed to buy MBNA Corp., which is the biggest credit card issuer, for $35 billion in cash and stock. As a consequence of this acquisition Bank of America would double its customer accounts to 40 million and have $143 billion in outstanding balances. After the news, shares of MBNA rallied 24 percent to close at $26.16 on the New York Stock Exchange. However, Bank of America’s shares fell $1.30, or 2.8 percent to close at $45.61.

The Labor Department reported that first-time filings for state unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 310,000 in the week ending June 25. Also, the Commerce Department announced that U.S consumer spending was flat in May as personal income growth slowed. Nevertheless, both results (which suggests a slowdown in the economy) were below economists’ expectations.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/29/05

Wednesday, June 29th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThe Dow fell 31.15 points, to close at 10,734.48. Besides, the Nasdaq closed at 2,068.89, after falling 1 point, while the S&P closed at 1,199.85, after falling 1.72 points. The U.S stock market finished session lower today, due to investors’ concerns about rising interest rates. However, the August crude contract ended the day down 94 cents, to close at $57.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This drop in price was caused by the announcement of the Energy Department, which said that crude supplies rose by 1.1 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute also announced that crude inventories added 2.9 millions barrels last week.

William Donaldson, a Republican that is ending his position of the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), joined the Democrats to approve the measure requiring mutual funds to have independent chairmen. Furthermore, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit sent the rule back to the SEC last week. The judges said that the SEC did not consider the costs of requirements, and also failed to weigh an alternative plan posed by the Republicans.

Oracle Corp., the world’s third-largest software maker, reported that earnings of the fourth-quarter increased about 3.2 percent. Net income rose to $1.02 billion, or 20 cents a share, from $990 million, or 19 cents, a year earlier. North American sales of database software and business applications such as payroll programs also posted their fastest growth in at least two years. Shares of Oracle rose 5.8 percent today, which shows the biggest gain since PeopleSoft Inc agreed to give up the fight against Oracle’s hostile takeover in December of last year.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/28/05

Tuesday, June 28th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThe Dow rallied 114.85 points, to close at 10,405.63. Also, the Nasdaq rose 24.69 points, to close at 2,069.89. The S&P closed at 1,201.57, after rising 10.88 points. This big rally in the U.S stock market was caused by a pullback in crude-oil prices, and other good economic news. Although crude-oil prices closed above $60 yesterday, oil skid almost 4 percent with the August contract closing down $2.34 at $58.20 a barrel on the New York Stock Exchange. Also, Morgan Stanley raised its oil price forecast, saying it sees $50 crude for 2005, and upgraded its rating in the oil sector to attractive.

The only two companies that posted losses in the Dow were Pfizer Inc., and Exxon Mobil Corp. On the other hand, Home Depot, General Motors Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc., and United Technologies Corp. posted the biggest gains in the Dow. In the technology sector, International Business Machines (IBM) was targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has opened an informal investigation into disclosures that the company made regarding stock option expenses in its first-quarter earnings report.

The former chief executive of HealthSouth Corp., Richard Scrushy, was acquitted of directing a $2.7 billion accounting fraud, which almost bankrupted the company he built into the largest U.S. operator of rehabilitation hospitals. Scrushy was the first executive cleared at trial of fraud charges since the government began prosecuting corporate wrongdoing following the collapse of Enron Corp. in 2001. HealthSouth also released its first audited financial statements since 2002, lowering the previously stated profit in 2000 and 2001 by $1 billion. The company’s net loss in 2002 was $466.8 million, or $200 million more than previously stated.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/27/05

Monday, June 27th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S. stocks finished session down due again to high oil prices. The August contract closed up 70 cents at $60.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was the first time that oil price closes above $60 a barrel. The Dow fell 7.06 points, to close at 10,290. Also, the Nasdaq fell 8.07 points, to close at 2,045, while the S&P closed at 1,190, after falling 0.88 points.

Oil prices increased due to concerns that Iran’s new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, may put a limit on foreign investment. Ahmadinejad said in a speech that he would favor domestic companies in order to develop the country’s oil reserves, which is the world’s second biggest. This means that there might be a slowdown in Iran’s oil output since demand for gasoline and jet fuel is increasing in U.S. and China.

Among Dow components, Alcoa Inc., General Motors Corp., Pfizer Inc., and Walt Disney Co. posted heavy losses, however the losses of the Dow were tempered by a 2 percent spike in Exxon Mobil, and Boeing Co. Boeing ended the first quarter with $3.3 billion in cash while cash and marketable securities totaled $6.3 billion.

Google Inc. rose above $300 for the first time after being a public company for a little less than a year. The company, which first sold shares to the market at $85 each, surpassed Time Warner Inc. as the industry’s most valuable company on June. Shares of Google ended $6.85 higher at a record $304.10. Also, Walgreen Co. the top U.S drugstore chain, jumped $1.47 to close at $45.85, after reporting a better-than-expected fiscal third quarter.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/24/05

Friday, June 24th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S. stocks dropped today due to an increased awareness of oil prices. Investors think that growth will slow down as a consequence of high oil prices. The Dow fell 123.60 points, to close at 10,297.84. Besides, the Nasdaq fell 17.39 points, to close at 2,053.27. Also, the S&P closed at 1,191.57, after falling 9.16 points. In general, all major indexes fell during this week.

Among Dow components, Alcoa fell 2.7 percent, to close at $26.46, after the aluminum producer announced that it would take a second-quarter charge of 25 cents to 28 cents per share. The company also said that it will cut another 6,500 employees from its global payroll over the next year, in addition to 1,800 job cuts from the first quarter. To cover the firm’s costs, there will also be plant closings and consolidation efforts. This means that Alcoa would take a charge of $220 million to $250 million, against second-quarter earnings.

There was a second case of mad-cow disease today, after the U.K. lab found evidences of a brain-wasting livestock disease in a sample taken in November from an animal that never entered the food supply. According to the Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, the U.S. will add a second level of testing for any samples with inconclusive results in the government’s screening program. After the news, cattle futures for August delivery fell 0.1 percent, to close at 79.875 cents a pound on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Also, shares of Tyson Foods Inc., the world’s largest beef packer, fell 10 cents to close at $18 in New York Stock Exchange Composite trading. But, the new mad cow disease might not have a great effect on Americans’ habits of eating beef, since “Americans like to eat beef.”

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/23/05

Thursday, June 23rd, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThere was a big decline in the U.S market today. The Dow fell 166.49 points, to close at 10,421.44. Besides, the Nasdaq fell 21.37 points, to close at 2,070.66. The S&P closed at 1,200.73, after falling 13.15 points. This decline was mainly due to oil prices. Oil futures topped $60 a barrel, which represents a new record. Crude for August delivery climbed as high as $60.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is just 3 cents above the contract’s all-time, intraday high from Monday. However, the benchmark contract pulled back to finish the session up $1.33 to close at $59.42.

Among Dow components, shares of Merck fell 2.3 percent due to a report that said that drug maker’s scientist had already been looking to reformulate its controversial Vioxx drug in 2000 in an effort to reduce its cardiovascular risks. Also, shares of General Electric (GE) fell about 2.4 percent after the industrial conglomerate announced that it would reorganize into only six businesses, in order to save about $200 million to $300 million in costs.

Among other stocks that dropped, Del Monte Foods Co., the largest U.S. maker of canned fruits and vegetables, fell 49 cents, or 4.5 percent, to close at $10.36. The company said that its fourth-quarter net income fell 66 percent to $19.3 million, or 9 cents per share, from $56.6 million, or 27 cents, a year earlier, due to high expenses. Also, shares of Rite Aid Corp. fell 9.7 percent to close at $4.11 since the company lowered its full-year profit outlook after first-quarter net income nearly halved from last year as well.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

The Zanger Report – KBH – 6/23/05

Thursday, June 23rd, 2005

Fiasco Trade of the DayMore exclusive trading recommendations from world record-holder Dan Zanger and The Zanger Report - free 3-week trial. (No credit card needed.)

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ChartPattern.com

DAN’S 10 GOLDEN STOCK RULES

1 – Make sure the stock has a well formed base or pattern such as one described on this web site and can be found on the tab “Understanding Chart Patterns” on the home page, before considering purchase. Dan highlights stocks with these patterns in his newsletter.

2 – Buy the stock as it moves over the trend line of that base or pattern and make sure that volume is above recent trend shortly after this “breakout” occurs. Never pay up by more than 5% above the trend line. You should also get to know your stocks thirty day moving average volume, which you can find on most stock quote pages such as eSignal’s quote page.

3 – Be very quick to sell your stock should it return back under the trend line or breakout point. Usually stops should be set about $1 below the breakout point. The more expensive the stock, the more leeway you can give it, but never have more than a $2 stop loss. Some people employ a 5% stop loss rule. This may mean selling a stock that just tried to breakout and fails in 20 minutes or 3 hours from the time it just broke out above your purchase price.

4 – Sell 20 to 30% of your position as the stock moves up 15 to 20% from its breakout point.

5 – Hold your strongest stocks the longest and sell stocks that stop moving up or are acting sluggish quickly. Remember stocks are only good when they are moving up.

6 – Identify and follow strong groups of stocks and try to keep your selections in the these groups

7 – After the market has moved for a substantial period of time, your stocks will become vulnerable to a sell off, which can happen so fast and hard you won’t believe it. Learn to set new higher trend lines and learn reversal patterns to help your exit of stocks. Some of you may benefit from reading a book on Candlesticks or reading Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, by Bulkowski.

8 – Remember it takes volume to move stocks, so start getting to know your stock’s volume behavior and the how it reacts to spikes in volume. You can see these spikes on any chart. Volume is the key to your stock’s movement and success or failure.

9 – Many stocks are mentioned in the newsletter with buy points. However just because it’s mentioned with a buy point does not mean it’s an outright buy when a buy point is touched. One must first see the action in the stock and combine it with its volume for the day at the time that buy point is hit and take keen notice of the overall market environment before considering purchase. Are stocks moving briskly or are they acting sluggish or even worse, are we in a hefty sell off.

10 – Never go on margin until you have mastered the market, charts and your emotions. Margin can wipe you out.

Note: If you are new to trading or investing, I suggest reading these rules many times over until they become ingrained so you can act without emotions.

Stocks that breakout and move up with tremendous volume and close near the highs of the day seem to work out best. However many stocks that move up 15% or more on breakout day often fail. You’ll just have to watch your stocks action like a hawk and get to see and understand these things over a long period of time. If trading were easy everyone would be making millions. It’s not; it takes years and years of hard work and long hours.

Many traders employ a half hour rule, meaning that for the first half hour of the day many traders do not buy any stock that gaps up in price. If the price holds after the first half hour then often many traders will step in a buy the stock. I find this rule works good after the market has moved up for few strong weeks and is not very effective at the start of a new strong move.

If it’s earnings season then it’s an absolute must that you know the date that your company reports its earnings. Many traders prefer to be out 100% before a company reports its earnings in case the company misses its earnings or guides lower. Others I know reduce positions substantially before earnings are released to lower risk. The choice is up to you.

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/22/05

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S. stocks finished session mixed after Morgan Stanley presented disappointing earnings. The Dow fell 11.74 points, to close at 10,587. However, the Nasdaq rose 0.96 points, to close at 2,092. Besides, the S&P closed at 1,213 after rising 0.27 points. Rising energy prices are a major concern in the current economy.

Among Dow components, General Motors Corp. was the biggest percentage decliner. It was down 3 percent due to profit warnings. Also, shares of Ford fell 4.4 percent to close at $10.68. According to Morgan Stanley’s analyst Stephen Girsky, “Ford’s challenges could get worse in 2006 due to an aging F-series (roughly 30 percent of volume) that is exposed to new products from GM and Toyota.” Currently, Ford’s immediate future focuses primarily on cars like the 2006 Ford Fusion, Lincoln Zephyr and Mercury Milan, which will replace the Taurus and Sable this coming fall.

Boeing Co. announced that it is planning to record a $100 million loss associated with a sale of commercial aircraft operations in Kansas and Oklahoma to Canadian firm Onex Corp. The company Onex paid $900 million in cash as part of the February deal, which still maintains supply relationships with Boeing. Its stocks finished session high at $63.13, after rising 0.6 percent.

Morgan Stanley reported that its second-quarter net income fell 24 percent from last year’s level due to legal costs in respect to Parmalat settlement. Its shares fell 0.9 percent, to close at $50.52. The results for Morgan Stanley included net expenses of about $140 million related to various legal matters that, of course, include the Parmalat’s case.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/21/05

Tuesday, June 21st, 2005

PortfolioCrafterDue to an increase in the price of oil, and no major economic reports to focus on, the Dow fell 9.44 points, to close at 10,599.67. Besides, the S&P fell 2.49 points, to close at 1,213.61. On the other hand, the Nasdaq closed at 2,091.07, after rising slightly 2.94 points. U.S. light crude for July delivery rose to end session at $59.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Treasury prices also influenced the market by sending yields lower after influential reports said that the Fed’s tightening cycle will “likely” end soon, which implies that rates could start coming down at the end of the year 2005.

Ford Motor Co., which is the second largest U.S automaker, cut its 2005 earnings forecasts for the second time this year, and said that it will eliminate more jobs due to weak sales in North America. The company is also eliminating 2005 bonuses for salaried managers worldwide and is suspending company matching grants for employees with 401(K) retirement plans effective on July 1st.

Among winners in the market, Intel Corp. added 28 cents to finish at $27.18. Besides, Texas Instruments, Inc., the number one maker of mobile-phone chips, added 36 cents, to close at $28. And, PMC-Sierra, the maker of chips for telecommunications equipment was raised to “equal weight” from “underweight” by analysts. Reports show that shares of PMC-Sierra will rise as profit margins improve.

According to Krispy Kreme’s executives,“six of the company’s officers should be discharged” due to accounting problems. A committee of independent directors is still investigating the company’s case, and is cooperating with a probe by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares of Krispy Kreme finished session down 1 cent to $7.66.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 6/20/05

Monday, June 20th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterAn increase in oil prices forced the major indexes to decline today. The Dow finished session down 13.96 points, to close at 10,609.11. Besides, the Nasdaq closed at 2,088.13, after falling slightly 1.98 points. Meanwhile, the S&P fell 0.86 points, to close at 1,216.10.

The benchmark July contract of crude surged past $59 a barrel due to security concern in Nigeria, which is a major oil supplier to the United States. Now, America and Britain have closed their embassies in the African country for security worries. The front-month contract ended up 90 cents at $59.37 a barrel in New York. On the other hand, the August contract, which becomes the lead contract this week, increased 57 cents to close at $59.75 a barrel.

Among Dow components, Boeing Co. fell about 1.5 percent, after the company lost a $6 billion Air Canada order for its 777, and 787 jets. The cancellation was a consequence of the members of the carrier’s pilots union, which rejected a cost-cutting deal that would have cleared the way for the purchase. This rejection has being said to be related to an unresolved dispute over seniority rather than an unwillingness to accept new planes.

John Rigas, the founder of Adelphia Communications Corp., was sentenced to 15 years in prison, while his son Timothy, the ex-finance executive, was sentenced with 20 years for reasons of cheating investors about finances of the company. John Rigas was Adelphia’s CEO until his ouster in May 2002. Adelphia sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in June 2002.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.