Archive for May, 2005

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/16/05

Monday, May 16th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S. stocks finished session high, and the Dow posted triple-digit gain. The blue chip index rose 112.17 points, to close at 10,259.29. This 1.1 percent increase, partially recovers last week’s losses, when the benchmark index fell 2 percent. Besides, the Nasdaq closed at 1,994.43, after rising 17.65 points. Meanwhile, the S&P also rose 11.64 points, to close at 1,165.69.

The rise in U.S stocks was helped by oil prices, which held below $49 a barrel. Crude oil for June delivery lost 6 cents to $48.61 in New York after earlier touching $47.60, which was the lowest level since February 18th. Besides, an index of financial companies that rallied 1.7 percent helped the gains of the market. Citygroup, the world’s number one financial-services company, added 89 cents to $46.80. And, Bank of America, Corp., increased 72 cents to $45.85.

Among the winners of the Dow, Home Depot gained 3 percent to close at $37.37. Also, shares of General Motors Corp. posted a three cent gain, which shows an improvement since it was downgraded to neutral weight from overweight at Prudential. On the other hand, Alcoa shares fell 0.4 percent, after a report showed that Smith Barney cut the aluminum producer’s earnings estimate.

Billionaire investor Ronald Perelman, chairman of Revlon Inc., won $604.3 million in damages on claims that Morgan Stanley defrauded him as part of the 1998 sale of his controlling stake in Coleman Co. to Sunbeam Corp. Perelman sold his stake in Coleman for $1.5 billion, including stock. But, months later Sunbeam’s problems were revealed and the value of Perelman’s stake was ended. Sunbeam sought bankruptcy protection in February 2001. This is a bad episode for Philip Purcell, the chief executive of Morgan Stanley, who has been criticized for bad management. However, Morgan Stanley said that it will appeal this verdict.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/13/05

Friday, May 13th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThere is fear and uncertainty about the prices of commodities, which are falling out recently. The Dow fell 49.36 points, to close at 10,140.12. Besides, the S&P fell 5.31 points, to close at 1,154.05. However, the Nasdaq was the leading index, and posted gains of 12.90 points, to finish session at 1,976.78. For this week, the Nasdaq gained 0.5 percent. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar extended its gains, with the euro falling 0.4 percent versus the dollar to $1.2624.

The Bush Administration put a limit on textile imports from China, since it is hurting U.S producers and the economy. According to the Commerce Department, this measure would allow the U.S. to impose a 7.5 percent cap on growth in imports from China, based on a 2001 World Trade Organization agreement. Now, European countries are also demanding similar regulations on Chinese textile exports.

The consumer confidence index fell unexpectedly, and energy shares drop due to concerns that demand may be slowing down. The University of Michigan’s May consumer sentiment index fell to 85.3 from 87.7 in April, which represents its fifth decline. Besides, crude oil for June delivery sank 4.5 percent to $48.67 a barrel in New York. Shares of Exxon declined $1.12 to $53.70. Also, ConocoPhilips, which is the largest U.S. oil refiner, fell $1.81 to $98.51. Alcoa, the largest aluminum maker, fell 85 cents, or 3.1 percent to close at$26.70.

After Dell announced that its first-quarter earnings jumped 28 percent from last year to $934 million, or 37 cents a share, Dell finished session 7.4 percent higher than yesterday. Also, the company reported a 16 percent increase in sales to $13.39 billion. Shares of Dell rose $2.72 to close at $39.33.

The U.S. military proposed closing 193 military bases today. The release of the proposed closings opens a political struggle as cities and towns press their lawmakers to fight to save their bases mainly because bases are their largest employers and the focus of community life.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/12/05

Thursday, May 12th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterIt was a bad day for the market, in general. The decrease in U.S. stocks was due to losses of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., and a big concern from investors of a slide in commodity prices. And, Asian stocks declined for a fifth day led by BHP Billiton and PetroChina Co. Today, the Dow fell 110.77 points, to close at 10,189.48. Besides, both the Nasdaq, and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq fell 7.67 points, to close at 1,963.88, meanwhile, the S&P fell 11.75 points, to close at 1,159.36.

Dell Inc. reported that its first quarter net income rose 28 percent. This profit was due to strong sales growth in Europe and Asia. Dell earned $934 million, or 37 cents per share, for the three months that ended April 29, in comparison to $731 million last year. Besides, the world’s number one personal-computer company, demonstrated to have better results than rivals, such as International Business Machines Corp (IBM). In after hours trading Dell rose 95 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $37.56.

Exxon Mobil Corp. had its steepest drop in more than two years as the price of oil fell. Shares of Exxon fell 4.3 percent as crude-oil prices fell below $49 a barrel. Exxon lost $2.47 to $54.82, and was the biggest contributor to the decrease in the S&P. Another Dow component that posted losses today was Alcoa Inc. Its shares ended down 3 percent at $27.55.

Besides, shares of Wal-Mart Inc. fell in price due to an economic report that showed that the company had adjusted earnings that came a penny short of analysts’ expectations. Therefore, guess what? Wal-Mart shares fell 2 percent. This shows an irrational behavior from investors that rely solely in analysts’ forecasts. Now, Wal-Mart expects second-quarter earnings of 63 to 67 cents per share, which is below the average Wall Street view for earnings of 70 cents per share. Therefore, investors might react against this forecast again, and shares of Wal-Mart may fall again.

Tomorrow is Friday, the 13th, but don’t worry, you should still invest. According to a CNN report, when the 13th day of the month fell on Friday, the Dow actually performed better than a typical Friday!

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/11/05

Wednesday, May 11th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S. stocks today posted gains, after oil prices slumped. The Dow closed at 10,300.25, after rising 19.14 points. Besides, both the Nasdaq, and the S&P ended session at highs. The Nasdaq rose 8.78 points, to close at 1,971.55, while the S&P closed at 1,171.11, after rising 4.89 points.

Oil prices sank 3 percent, after the government’s weekly inventory report showed a solid increase. U. S. light crude for June delivery sank $1.62 to settle at $50.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This decrease in price represents the first daily loss in six trading days. Prices started to fall after the International Energy Agency’s monthly Oil market report said that “higher fuel costs and weakening economic growth slowed demand growth in China, Europe, and the United States during the first quarter.

Walt Disney Co., the second-largest U.S media company, said second-quarter profit rose 30 percent, boosted by home-video sales of “The Incredibles”. Sales of this video, which is the best-selling digital video disc this year, helped to boost profits for almost 65 percent at Disney’s film television. Net income rose to $698 million, or 33 cents a share, compared with $537 million, or 26 per share, a year earlier.

Eastman Kodak Co., the world’s largest photography company, gained $1.13, or 4.4 percent, to $26.58 for the second biggest rally in the S&P 500. Antonio Perez was named chief executive, after Daniel Carp’s plan to transform the filmmaker into a digital imaging company fell short of expectations. However, Carp will continue as chairman until his retirement on January 1st of next year.

General Motors, which posted a net loss of $1.1 billion last quarter, fell 53 cents to $31. Besides, Ford Motor Company dropped 14 cents to $9.64. Now, both carmakers had lost their investment-grade ratings last week. During this year, the S&P has declined about 3.4 percent due to disappointing forecasts from companies such as GM.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/10/05

Tuesday, May 10th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday, U. S. stocks fell due to an increase in the price of oil, which climbed to $52.07 to show the highest close since April 26. The Dow fell 103.23 points, to close at 10,281.11. Besides, both the Nasdaq, and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq fell 16.90 points, to close at 1,962.77, while the S&P fell 12.62 points to close at 1,166.22.

Morgan Stanley fell $1.33 to $49.42 due to news that investment banking slowed during the second quarter. Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Phillip Purcell said that the company “generally loses about 10 percent of its bankers every spring after year-end bonuses are handed out.” And, he expects that this year will not change much, with the exception that every departure will make headlines.

Cisco’s shares finished unchanged in regular trading. However, analysts expected earnings of 22 cents. But, Cisco said that sales in the period climbed 10 percent to $6.19 billion. Cisco’s last three earnings reports have weighted on the stock market the day after their release. Last quarter, Cisco’s sales forecast on February 8, allowed the S&P to decrease 0.9 percent the following day.

On the other hand, Treasury prices closed higher, buoyed by a successful auction of $22 billion in 3-year notes. The benchmark 10-year note ended up 15/32 at 98 7/32. Besides, the 30-year bond was up 19.32 at 111 26/32, yielding 4.58 percent. The auction attracted strong demand, which represented one of the best auctions in over six years.

Shares of Abatix Corp. soared 53 percent after the Dallas provider of construction tools and industrial safety products posted first-quarter earnings of $198,000, or 12 cents a share, which shows an increase from last year’s loss of $120,000, or 7 cents per share. Besides, shares of Domino’s Pizza rose 5.7 percent, after the company reported first quarter earnings of $25 million, or 35 cents per share. Finally, Nuance Communications (NUAN) shares rose 38 percent after the company agreed to be acquired by ScanSoft (SSFT) for $221 million.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/9/05

Monday, May 9th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU. S stocks rallied in the final minutes of trading. Gains in shares of major companies, and economic reports that showed a $9 billion merger in the electrical utility industry increased investors’ confidence. The Dow rose 38.94 points to close at 10,384.34. Besides, both the Nasdaq, and the S&P posted gains. The Nasdaq closed at 1,979.67, after rising 12.32 points. Besides, the S&P rose 7.49 points, to close at 1,178.84.

Among the Dow components, General Motors (GM) has posted gains. GM added 0.6 percent, as shares rebounded from loses that were caused after it received a credit of “junk”. GM shares had surged more than 18 percent when Kerkorian announced plans to launch its $31 a share bid to increase its holding in the world’s largest automaker to 8.8 percent. GM will revise the offer, and give advice to shareholders by May 20.

However, Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) was among the losers of the Dow. The company fell 24 cents, to close at $20.74, after analyst Keith Bachman from Banc of America, said that HPQ should lower its profits’ estimates by about 5 percent to 10 percent, which is a more realistic estimate.

The second-biggest U. S. utility acquisition in history is about to happen. Duke Energy Corp., the largest U.S. utility owner announced that it will acquire Cinergy Corp. for about $8.9 billion in stock. Duke also will assume about $5.4 billion in debt, and will expect to cut $400 million in annual costs by cutting an approximate of 1,500 jobs. James Rogers will replace Paul Anderson as chief executive at Duke. The deal is expected to close by July 2006 of this year. Cinergy Corp. rose $1.94 to $42.32. On the other hand, Duke Energy slipped 54 cents to $28.82.

Ameritrade Holdings Corp. rallied 19.4 percent to close at $13.42 on reports that rival online broker E-Trade Financial Corp. has made an unsolicited $5.5 billion bid for the company. However, E-Trade did not accept to comment on negotiations. E-Trade shares rose 5.8 percent to close at $12.62. This merger has been expected by analysts, who anticipated mergers in the discount brokerage sector because trading volumes from customers is not very strong. Besides, prices had decreased to increase competition among brokers.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

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Friday, May 6th, 2005

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Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/6/05

Friday, May 6th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterIt was a mixed day for the market, due to investors’ worries about higher interest rates. The Dow rose 5.02 points, to close at 10,345.40. Besides, the Nasdaq rose 5.55 points, to close at 1,967.35. However, the S&P, which reflects the economy more accurately, fell closed at 1,171.35, after falling 1.28 points. This week, the Dow closed up 1.5 percent, the Nasdaq gained 2.4 percent, and the S&P ended with a 1.3 percent gain.

U. S employers added 274,000 workers in April, which shows a higher-than-expected result, in addition to strong confidence from companies that the economy will recover from its first-quarter slowdown. Besides, according to the Labor Department, average earnings per week increased by $4.88 to $542.40, or 0.9 percent more than March, and unemployment rate held at 5.2 percent. Are these reports showing good news? Think again. The data might suggest a measured increase in interest rates by the Fed.

Among the biggest winners in the Dow, Walt Disney Co. rose 0.7 percent after Pixar Animation Studios had beaten estimates of analysts by reporting positive first-quarter earnings. Pixar’s shares rose 5.3 percent. Besides, Boeing Co. increased 2.1 percent due to an order for 18 of its new 787 Dreamliners from Northwest Airlines Corp. Another best performer in the Dow was Honeywell International Inc. The world’s largest maker of airplane cockpit electronics rose $1.68, or 4.8 percent, to $36.85 on speculations that United Technologies Corp. might acquire the company.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter
Guaranteed monthly gains of 8% or your money back.

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/5/05

Thursday, May 5th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S stocks declined after the S&P cut ratings on General Motors and Ford bonds to “junk bonds”, sending their stocks plunging. The Dow fell 44.26 points, to close at 10,340.38. Besides, both the Nasdaq, and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq slightly fell 0.46 points to close at 1,961.80, while the S&P closed at 1,172.63, after falling 3.02 points.

Among the Dow components, General Motors (GM) was the worst performer in the index. The company’s shares plunged $1.94, or 5.9 percent, to $30.86. An index of auto-released shares slid 3.6 percent for the steepest drop among 24 industries groups in the S&P index. Delphi Corp., which gets half of its revenue from GM, fell 28 cents to close at $3.57, while Visteon Corp, which is a unit of Ford, fell 20 cents to $3.74.

Shares of Pixar Animation Studios rose to $48.11, after the company said that its first quarter earnings more than tripled. Pixar announced that it earned 67 cents a share on revenue that jumped to $161.2 million. This profit was due to strong DVD sales of “The Incredibles”.

Starbucks, Federated Department Stores Inc., and Nordstrom Inc, were among some of retailers that posted gains. The largest coffee U.S shop chain climbed $1.63 to $52.24. The company said that April sales jumped 9 percent. Also, Federated Department Stores Inc, which is the owner of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s added $2.20 to $62.37. Finally, Nordstrom Inc. jumped $2.19 to $53.89.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter - Market Commentary 5/4/05

Wednesday, May 4th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S stocks ended the session sharply higher, mainly due to a surge in General Motors. The Dow rose 127.69 points, to close at 10,384.64. Besides, both the Nasdaq and the S&P posted gains. The Nasdaq rose 29.16 points, to close at 1,962.23, while the S&P closed at 1,175.65, after climbing 1,175.65.

Among the Dow components, General Motors was the biggest winner, after Kirk Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp. announced his plan to offer $31 a share for as many as 28 million shares of General Motors, which is 13 percent above the closing price of $27.77 on Tuesday. This offer price pushed GM up $5.03, to close at $32.80. Merrill Lynch upgraded GM stock to neutral from sell on the news. Among the losers in the Dow, Johnson & Johnson, and Microsoft Corp. posted loses, meanwhile SBC Communications Inc. ended the day flat.

International Business Machine Corp. (IBM) reported that it would cut up to about 13,000 jobs in Europe to create smaller local units that would improve direct contact with clients. According to the company, this strategy would eliminate corporate bureaucracy and shift resources to markets with higher potential of growth. Besides, IBM said that it would record a pre-tax charge of between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion in its second quarter, to pay for the restructuring of the company.

According to Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Timothy Bitsberger, “Treasury is considering wether or not to reintroduce regular issuance of a 30-year nominal Treasury Bond”. As an alternative, the Treasury is contemplating the possibility of semiannual issuance of $20 billion to $30 billion in 30-year securities. However, most bond dealers favor reintroduction of the 30-year bond.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter