Archive for April, 2005

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/29/05

Friday, April 29th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S stocks ended sharply higher today. The Dow ended higher 122.14 points, to close at 10,192.51, which represents a .3 percent increase on this week, but shows a drop of 3 percent in the month of April. The Nasdaq rose 17.47 points, to close at 1,921.65, while the S&P closed at 1,156.85, after rising 13.63 points.

Among Dow components that posted gains, Microsoft Corp.’s stock rose 85 cents, or 3.5 percent, to close at $25.30. Nevertheless, Microsoft’s shares have traded in a range of $23.82 to $30.20 over the past 52 weeks. Due to strong sales of server software and Microsoft’s home entertaining products, such as Xbox gaming console, sales rose 4.9 percent to $9.62 billion last year. Also, revenue was up from $9.18 billion a year ago, but results did not meet analyst’s expectations.

Besides, U.S Treasuries ended at their lows for the session due to a high demand for stocks. Rumors that China could sell off bond holdings if Beijing shifts its policy on foreign-exchange control worried investors. According to Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak, “the worry is that China probably will stop selling its own currency to purchase Treasuries”.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is scheduled to load 0.7 percent more oil for export on tankers in the four weeks ending May 16 than in the previous four weeks. Crude for June delivery ended down $2.05 or 4 percent at $49.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Also, gasoline for May delivery fell 5.57 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $1.4393 a gallon in New York.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/28/05

Thursday, April 28th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday was a bad day for the market due to investors’ concerns that the economy may be slowing down. The Dow ended down 128.43 points to close at 10,070.37. Besides, the Nasdaq hit a new yearly low, falling 26.25 points, to close at 1,904.18. Meanwhile, the S&P fell 13.16 points, to close at 1,143.22.

According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) showed an annual pace of growth of 3.1 percent, which represents a percentage down from the 3.8 percent rise in the fourth quarter of 2004. It was the slowest quarter since the 1.9 percent annual rate reported in the first quarter of 2003. The GDP increases worries about slower economic growth and higher prices. This economic environment is called stagflation.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery settled up 16 cents to close at $51.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, oil fell as low as $49.80. Exxon slid $2.38 to close at $56 which caused the big drop in the S&P, and the Dow. Exxon reported first quarter profit of $1.15 a share, which showed a decrease from analysts’ expectations.

Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest software maker, fell 54 cents to close at $24.45. However, in after-hours trading, the company’s shares rose 17 cents to $24.62. Microsoft reported that fiscal third-quarter net income rose to $2.56 billion, or 23 cents a share, from $1.32 billion, or 12 cents last year.

U.S House and Senate Republicans reached an agreement on a budget plan that cuts about $10 billion from spending on Medicaid during five years and calls for about $70 billion in tax cuts. Republicans said that the Medicaid costs are the main point of a plan to pare back the U.S budget deficit, which reached $412 billion last year. On the other side, democrats said the plan does not cut the deficit, but undercuts the needs for health care for Medicaid beneficiaries.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/27/05

Wednesday, April 27th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU. S. stocks rose today due to a steep decline in oil prices, and better-than-expected results from companies, such as Verizon Communications Inc., and Corning Inc. The Dow rose 47.67 points, to close at 10,198.80. Besides, both the Nasdaq, and the S&P posted gains. The Nasdaq rose 2.99 points, to close at 1,930.43, while the S&P closed at 1,156.38, after rising 4.64 points.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June delivery shed 4.8 percent, or $2.59, to close at 51.61 a barrel. According to the Energy Department, U.S. crude supplies rose $5.5 million barrels for the week ended April 22. This increase shows that supply is above the upper end of the average range for this time of the year.

In a Small Business Administration conference, President George W. Bush said that “our supply of energy is not growing fast enough to meet the demand of our growing economy”. He also said that foreign energy dependence has reduced the country’s ability to “take actions at home that will lower prices for American Families.” Bush proposed to refine oil on military bases to improve the economy.

Tomorrow, the government will release its first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product. However, investors are worried about the outlook of the economy. The March report on durable goods orders showed a 2.8 percent decline, which represents the biggest one-month drop in about two year. Also, according to many economists’ surveys, GDP is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/26/05

Tuesday, April 26th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterU.S. stocks ended lower today due to investors’ decrease in confidence. According to the Conference Board, its consumer confidence index fell more sharply than expected to 97.7 in April from 103.3 in March. The Dow ended down 91.34 points, to close at 110,151.13. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell 23.34 points, to close at 1,927.44. The S&P also ended down 10.36 points, to close at 1,151.74.

Amazon.Com (AMZN) reported that it earned $78 million, or 18 cents a share, for the quarter ended March 31, compared to $111 million, or 26 cents a share last year. After the results were released, Amazon’s shares fell more than 5 percent to $30.95 in late trading. However, Amazon’s international sales grew faster than the company’s North American business.

U.S. new home sales unexpectedly increased to the highest level ever in March. Purchases rose 12.2 percent to a 1.431 million annual rate after February sales that were faster than the government first estimated. Besides, the percentage of consumers expecting to buy a home in the next six months rose to 3.9 percent this month from 3.8 percent, which shows a higher-than-average 3.7 percent last year.

DuPont Co., the second U.S. chemicals manufacturer announced that its net income rose to $967 million, or 96 cents per share, from 668 million, or 66 cents last year. However, these results were lower than analysts’ expectations of $1.01 per share. DuPont lost $1.55 to $47.03, which represented a 3.2 percent decline. It was the steepest decrease in the Dow Average.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/25/05

Monday, April 25th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterAfter an economic report showed that U.S. sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose, benchmark indexes reached their highs of the days. The Dow increased 84.76 points, to close at 10,242.47. Besides, both the Nasdaq and the S&P posted gains. The Nasdaq closed at 1,950.78, after rising 18.59 points, meanwhile, the S&P closed at 1,162.10, after rising 9.98 points.

U.S. stocks rose thanks to the agreement of Valero Energy Corp. to buy Premcor Inc., in order to create the nation’s largest U.S refiner lifter energy shares. Besides, Boeing Co. won a $6.1 billion jet order, and rallied to its highest in almost 4 years. After analysts’ upgrades, Apple Computer, Starbucks Corp., and Ciena Corp. posted gains.

May gasoline settled at $1.6507, down 0.16 cent. Last week, the Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute reported unexpected declines in U.S crude oil and gasoline supplies. Oil and gas stocks rallied today, after Valero Energy’s announced $8 billion purchase of refiner Premcor Inc. The Amex Oil index rose 1.4 percent to close at 849.10 points.

A settlement of $715 million was agreed by federal authorities, and Adelphia. Therefore, the company’s founding family led by John Rigas will forfeit 95 percent of their assets to help set up a compensation fund for defrauded investors. According to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, “it was a day of justice for corrupt corporate executives.”

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/22/05

Friday, April 22nd, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThis week, all three major gauges managed to close modestly higher due to Thursday’s rally; however, the indexes remain lower for the year. A major reason for the decline in the market was the rumor that North Korea may be planning a nuclear weapons test. The Dow fell 60.89 points, to close at 10,157.71. Besides, the Nasdaq fell 30.22 points, to close at 1,932.39, while the S&P closed at 1,152.12, after falling 7.83 points.

The Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. announced its plan to acquire Instinet Group for $1.88 billion. After the news, the Nasdaq rallied 26 percent to close at $13.44. On the other hand, Instinet fell 8.6 percent, to close at $5.21. According to the terms of the deal, Nasdaq will pay $934.5 million, while private-equity firm Silver-Lake Partners will pay $207.5 million. Instinet’s other major unit (Instinet, the Institutional Broker) will be acquired by Silver-Lake as soon as Nasdaq complete its acquisition.

U.S Airways Group Inc., and America West Holdings Corp. are negotiating a possible merger, which would help to create a bigger, national competitor. After the reports were published, America West’s shares have declined 11 percent. Nevertheless, historically these types of mergers run into opposition from the U.S. government, and many of the airline unions.

Kodak, the world’s biggest photography company decreased $2.85, to close at $27.55. The company posted a first-quarter loss of 50 cents per share due to expenses to close plant, and eliminate jobs. Its profits were well below expectations. Besides, S&P cut its credit rating on Kodak’s debt to junk.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/21/05

Thursday, April 21st, 2005

PortfolioCrafterWithout a doubt, it is the blue chip’s biggest day since April 2, 2003. Amazingly, the Dow closed up 206.24 points, or 2.1 percent, at 10,218.60. Besides, the Nasdaq recorded its biggest one-day point gain since March 25, 2004 by surging 48.65 points, to close at 1,962.41. The S&P closed at 1,159.95, after climbing 22.45 points, or 2 percent to close at 1,159.95.

Among companies that helped to the rally of the market were Motorola Inc., and United Parcel Service Inc. Besides, solid economic news increased confidence in investors. According to the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia, growth accelerated in the manufacturing sector during the month of April. The Philly Fed index rose to 25.3 in April from 11.4 in March, revealing a strongest reading in four months.

Eartlink Inc. (ELNK), The Atlanta-based Internet service provider, reported a first-quarter profit of $33.3 million, or 22 cents a share. This result shows an increase from a loss of $11.8 million, or 7 cents a share since last year. Besides, net earnings before facility exit costs were $34 million, or 23 cents per share, compared to $18.4 million, or 11 cents a share a year ago.

Motorola Inc. posted first-quarter net income of 28 cents a share on sales of $8.2 billion. Shares of Motorola rose 6.7 percent. Also, Ebay Inc. said its first quarter profit rose 28 percent on sales that topped $1 billion for the first time. The internet company saw more than $10 billion worth of goods traded on its Web site.

Besides, Altria Group Inc., parent of Philip Morris, showed an increase of $2.56, or 4.1 percent, to $65.31. The company is planning to close a deal with the Chinese Government in order to allow Marlboro cigarettes to be made and sold in China. However, China’s tobacco regulator reported that it is not aware yet of the plans by Philip Morris.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/20/05

Wednesday, April 20th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday, the Dow and the S&P hit their lowest levels of 2005. U.S. stocks declined after economic reports showed that inflation may rise and hurt the outlook for the economy. The Dow fell 115.05 points, to close at 10,012.36. Besides, both the Nasdaq and the S&P posted losses. The Nasdaq fell 18.60 points, to close at 1,913.76, while the S&P closed at 1,137.50, after falling 15.28 points.

According to the Labor Department, the consumer price index rose a larger-than-expected 0.6 percent in March after a 0.4 percent rise. During the Fed’s last meeting in March 22, officials saw higher risks of inflation. It was reported that a drop in the value of the dollar, higher costs for building materials, and higher prices in energy contributed to higher costs.

The New York Stock Exchange announced its plan to merge with its electronic rival Archipelago Holdings and become public. The deal, which is subject to regulatory approval, is expected to close by the first quarter of 2006. Although there is not specific value in the deal yet, Archipelago’s ArcaEx electronic communication network has a stock market value of $885 million.

Ebay Inc., the biggest auction site, posted a better-than-expected 28 percent increase in quarterly net profits. However, forecasts for future profits are below the estimates of Wall Street. Ebay forecasted second-quarter net earnings of 16 cents per share, which is lower than analysts’ estimates. Still, revenue rose to $1.03 billion from $756.2 million last year. Shares of Ebay ended up 94 cents, or nearly 3 percent, at $33. 11.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/19/05

Tuesday, April 19th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterThe blue-chip index ended a four-day losing streak today. Also, the Nasdaq posted solid earnings due to positive economic news on inflation, and improvements in the technology and drug sectors. The Dow rose 56.15 points, to close at 10,127.4, and the Nasdaq rose 19.44 points, to close at 1,932.36. The S&P also posted gains today. The index closed at 1,152.78, after climbing 6.80 points.

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany was elected the new Pope today. He chose the name Pope Benedict XVI, and called himself “a simple, human worker”. Ratzinger is the first German pope since the 11th century, and the pope number 265 to the church. In Washington, President Bush congratulated the new Pope by calling him “a man of great wisdom and knowledge.”

Intel, the world’s biggest computer-chip maker announced that net income climbed to $2.15 billion or 34 cents a share, from $1.73 billion, or 26 cents a share, last year. Besides, sales rose 17 percent to $9.43 billion. Intel is benefiting from rising demand for laptops as falling prices attract more customers to choose the portable computers, over the desktops PCs.

Yahoo! Inc. said the first-quarter profit doubled due to selling of advertisements that appear on its Web pages. Net income rose to $204.6 million, or 14 cents a share, from $1001.2 million, or 7 cents last year. Yahoo attracts advertisers, such as Walt Disney Co. and Pepsi, Inc., which want to reach consumers that spend more time using the Internet. Now, Yahoo is capitalizing on the growth of ads linked to Web search results.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co. ended up $1.53 at $42.40 today, after the company reported that earnings from the latest quarter included charges totaling 7 cents a share and gains of 3 cents a share. Last month, Coke announced major changes to its senior management team, and international structure.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter

Portfolio Crafter – Market Commentary 4/18/05

Monday, April 18th, 2005

PortfolioCrafterToday was a mixed day for the market, since the Dow lost about 0.2 percent due to a large decline in 3M, while the Nasdaq edged higher and added 0.3 percent. The Dow fell 16.26 points to close at 10,071.25. However, the technology index rose 4.77 points to close at 1,912.92, and the S&P closed at 1,145.98, after rising 3.36 points.

Texas Instruments Inc. reported net income of $411 million, or 24 cents a share, compared with last year’s profit of $367 million, or 21 cents a share. According to the company, its first-quarter profit was due to low manufacturing and operating expenses. Besides, Texas Instruments forecasted that second-quarter revenue would range between $3 billion and $3.24 billion, with earnings per share in the range of 25 cents to 29 cents.

3M Co. declined after the company posted its smallest sales gain in about 2 and half years. This drop contributed to a sharp decline in the Dow. Earnings reports from 3M decreased investors’ confidence about profit growth this year. Besides, economics reports showed a drop in consumer confidence and factory production since last week.

Susan Schmidt Bies, Federal Reserve Governor, said that the economy will continue to expand this year, although “inflation pressures have risen somewhat in recent months, longer-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained.” She believes that U.S. consumers will start saving more and consuming less as interest rates begin to rise again. Bies is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is expected to raise interest rates for an eight straight meeting on May 3.

Adobe Systems Inc. said that it plans to buy Macromedia Inc. for $3.4 billion in stock. This acquisition would challenge Microsoft Corp. in the market software. After the plan was announced Macromedia closed higher by 9.8 percent at $36.72. However, Adobe shares dropped 9.7 percent to close at $54.77. This drop in price shows investors’ concerns about the risks of joining two rival companies.

All the best,
Manuel Jesus-Backus
The Portfolio Crafter